Sochi medal wrap-up, Day 2: 15yo figure skating prodigy secures Russia’s first gold

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Sochi medal wrap-up, Day 2: 15yo figure skating prodigy secures Russia’s first gold

WRAPUP 3-Upbeat U.S. data points to growth momentum

WRAPUP 3-Upbeat U.S. data points to growth momentum
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Wed Dec 4, 2013 1:38pm EST

 * Private employers add 215,000 jobs in November * Trade deficit narrows to $ 40.6 billion in October * Services sector still expanding, new home sales surge * Reports cast positive light on economy By Lucia Mutikani WASHINGTON, Dec 4 (Reuters) - U.S. private-sector hiring rose in November at the fastest clip in a year, opening the door wider for the Federal Reserve to start trimming its bond purchases within the next few months. Other data on Wednesday also pointed to a brightening outlook, with the services industry expanding at a decent pace last month and exports hitting a record high in October. There was also good news on the housing market as new home sales posted their largest increase in nearly 33-1/2 years. "The economy seems to be building enough momentum that growth should accelerate as we move through the first part of next year," said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisers in Holland, Pennsylvania. Private employers added 215,000 new jobs to their payrolls last month, according to payroll processor ADP. It was the biggest rise in a year and beat economists" expectations for a gain of 173,000 jobs. At the same time, the figure for October was revised up to 184,000 from 130,000. The jobs data comes ahead of the government"s much more comprehensive employment count for November on Friday. That report, which covers both public and private sector hiring, is expected to show an increase of 180,000 in nonfarm payrolls after a 204,000 rise in October, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Some economists said the ADP data suggested the government report could show a larger gain than the consensus forecast. Their optimism was tempered a bit by a drop to a six-month low in a gauge of services industry jobs growth for November. The signs of economic momentum weighed on U.S. Treasury debt prices and pushed the dollar higher as traders speculated the Fed could begin to trim its bond-buying stimulus as soon as its next meeting on Dec. 17-18. Stocks on Wall Street were little changed. "If the ADP does prove to be a good guide, a 200,000 plus gain (in nonfarm payrolls) might just be enough to persuade the Fed to begin its QE taper later this month," said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics in Toronto. Other economists said, however, the Fed was still more likely to wait until January or March to reduce its current $ 85 billion a month bond-buying pace. SERVICES SECTOR STILL GROWING Separately, the Institute for Supply Management said its services index fell to 53.9 last month from 55.4 in October. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector. November marked the 47th-straight month of growth in the services sector. A sub-index of services industry employment fell to its lowest level since May, but also stayed in expansion territory. "The data are still suggesting at least a modest net pickup in the trend in overall growth recently, even with this somewhat weaker reading for November," said Jim O"Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York. A separate report from the Commerce Department showed the nation"s trade deficit shrank 5.4 percent to $ 40.6 billion in October, suggesting trade will likely contribute to growth this quarter. Exports, which had declined for three straight months, hit an all-time high, pointing to a pick-up in global demand. Imports also rose, reaching a 1-1/2 year high, as demand for consumer goods and industrial supplies and materials increased. "This is an encouraging sign for both U.S. manufacturing growth and the state of global demand," said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics in New York. "There is a marked acceleration in the imports of capital goods, which may signal a brighter picture for capital spending." Petroleum exports were the highest on record. Exports to China, Canada and Mexico reached all-time highs in October, while exports to the 27-nation European Union also gained. In another report, the Commerce Department said new home sales jumped 25.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 444,000 units in October, more than unwinding September"s 6.6 percent drop. That suggested the housing market recovery remains intact despite higher mortgage rates. "Today"s data shows evidence of the persistence of the positive momentum in the housing market," said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies in New York. "Strong new home sales will translate into rising building permits and housing starts." 

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Reuters: Financial Services and Real Estate

Read more about WRAPUP 3-Upbeat U.S. data points to growth momentum and other interesting subjects concerning Real Estate at TheDailyNewsReport.com

Weekly News Wrap-Up 11.22.13

22 November 2013 91 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

The big story is coming out of the Middle East, and it’s all about negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. Talks in Geneva with world powers to halt Iran’s nuclear program are not going well. In a nutshell, the West wants Iran to stop its program because it fears it will build a bomb. Iran contends it has the right to have nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. Neither side is backing down. Meanwhile, Israel and Saudi Arabia, two countries most fearful of Iran, announced they will team up to attack Iran if a bad deal is reached. This USA Today headline sums it up by saying “Israel says ‘bad’ Iran deal will bring War.” Iran calls Israel a “rabid dog” in the Middle East. An attack on Iran would lead to a quick escalation that would have calamitous consequences for the entire world. Saudi oil fields would no doubt be attacked. The Saudis have just bought nuclear weapons from Pakistan, and the Kingdom would probably use them in a counterattack. The Strait of Hormuz would be shut down. About 1/5th of the world’s oil moves through that narrow sea passageway. The U.S. 5th fleet may also come under attack in Bahrain, and the whole thing might spiral out of control and spark a world war. This is the most underreported story out there.

The Senate just changed the rules on the filibuster, and it has stopped this tactic for judicial nominations. It simply means the minority party will have to succumb to majority rule on nearly all nominations and laws being voted on in the Senate. There will be no way to stop or slow it down. This has been called the “nuclear option” in the Senate. This will backfire on the Democrats if the Republicans take back the Senate in 2014 because of dissatisfaction over Obama Care. Neither party should have this much power. It is a sad day for democracy.

JP Morgan agreed to pay a $ 13 billion fine over its selling of mortgage-backed securities. Listen to the way USA Today described the case. The paper said “The nation’s largest bank admitted that it knew that residential mortgage-backed securities that it marketed did not comply with underwriting guidelines and weren’t fit for sale.” The paper went to great lengths not to use the words “fraud” or “crime” when it said, “. . . did not comply with underwriting guidelines and weren’t fit for sale.” Of course, I am sure JP Morgan, being an investor in Gannett which owns USA Today, had no bearing on the soft coverage. The paper did say the settlement did not absolve the bank from “potential criminal charges.” Does anyone think top bankers at JP Morgan will see any jail time? Please.

The Obama Care debacle is continuing to unfold higher premiums and deductibles for most people. Millions have already lost their coverage, and millions more will follow. But for some, Obama Care is a great deal. A friend of mine’s daughter is getting a policy for $ 12 a month! That’s right, $ 12 a month because her income level is close to the poverty line. You wonder why most people are getting socked with much higher premiums and getting much less coverage? Somebody has to pay for the more than 40 million who either cannot or will not buy insurance. Obama Care is working as planned, but this is not the way it was sold to the public. If only the poor sign up for Obama Care, can this be a viable plan?

Finally, today is the 50th anniversary of the JFK assassination. I can remember Lee Harvey Oswald yelling out, “I’m a patsy.” I asked my Dad what that meant, and he told me “He’s saying he didn’t do it.” I don’t think he shot JFK and never will because the government story has more holes than Swiss cheese. Film director Oliver Stone wrote a great Op-Ed piece in the USA Today newspaper, and he listed several facts that blow up the official government story. Why is this still important? We had a change in the highest office of government without an election. What did we get? We got deep into the Vietnam War which resulted in 58,000 U.S. casualties. You want me to believe Kennedy was killed by a lone gunman? Release all the autopsy photos and negatives.

Join Greg Hunter as he gives his analysis on these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog

Weekly News Wrap-Up 11.22.13

WRAPUP 3-ECB, urged by OECD to buy assets, says all options on the table

WRAPUP 3-ECB, urged by OECD to buy assets, says all options on the table
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Tue Nov 19, 2013 1:10pm EST

* OECD says ECB should buy bonds to counter deflation risk

* Vice-president says ECB has not discussed QE in detail

* ECB’s Praet says no deflation risk visible

* Asmussen says ECB ready to move again if inflation undershoots

By Robin Emmott and Sakari Suoninen

BRUSSELS/FRANKFURT, Nov 19 (Reuters) – All policy options are open for the European Central Bank and it has discussed the broad possibility of asset buying, its vice-president said, as the OECD urged it to consider such action to aid a weak recovery.

Paris-based think tank the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development called on the ECB on Tuesday to emulate U.S.-style quantitative easing, or QE, to help the single currency area avoid a Japanese-style deflationary spiral.

ECB Vice-President Vitor Constancio said the bank had discussed the possibility of QE but no technical planning work had taken place, though he added that “everything is possible”.

“All those instruments are on the table … but no decisions, we did what we did and that’s it,” he said, referring to a Nov. 7 decision to cut the bank’s key interest rate to a record low of 0.25 percent.

One of the euro zone central bank’s hawks, Joerg Asmussen, said separately that more policy action was possible if inflation continues to be well below the ECB’s target.

“Risks of deflation may be slowly increasing,” OECD chief economist Pier Carlo Padoan told Reuters. “The ECB must be very careful and be prepared to use even non-conventional measures to beat any risk of deflation becoming permanent.”

Inflation in the 17-nation euro zone fell to its lowest in nearly four years at just 0.7 percent in October, prompting the latest rate cut. The euro zone economy is struggling to recover from its longest ever recession, which ended in mid-year.

In an Austrian radio interview, ECB executive board member Asmussen, a German, said the bank could move again if necessary to keep inflation in the euro zone in line with its target of below but close to 2 percent.

“If the situation in inflation requires it, we can act again and one of the possible measures would be to use the so-called negative deposit rate,” he told public broadcaster ORF.

The deposit rate is now at zero. Cutting it further would mean banks would have to start paying to park their funds at the ECB overnight.

Asmussen said he would be “very, very careful” to deploy negative deposit rates, but he also did not want to rule it out completely. For now, he said, the risks to price stability were balanced and there was no risk of deflation in the euro zone.

The ECB’s economics chief, Peter Praet, who first put the possibility of QE on the agenda last week, also said on Tuesday that there was no risk of deflation visible in the euro area, and inflation expectations were firmly anchored.

“We had several episodes where we measured in market prices the fear of deflation, which we don’t see today,” Praet said at a Euro Finance Week conference in Frankfurt.

TOO EARLY

Asmussen reiterated the ECB’s stance that it is still too early to exit from the ECB’s loose monetary policy.

“Our monetary policy will remain expansionary for as long as needed,” Asmussen said.

Praet raised the possibility of QE in a Wall Street Journal interview last week, saying the central bank could use its balance sheet to prevent inflation under-shooting.

“This includes outright purchases that any central bank can do,” he said, without any public contradiction from ECB hawks.

Asked if the ECB had undertaken technical preparations for QE, Constancio told reporters in Frankfurt: “That was only referred to as a possibility, nothing else.”

“I have nothing to add to what he (Praet) said. Everything is possible. That was what Peter Praet said … it was not discussed in any detail.”

German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann led a minority of about a quarter of the ECB governing council members who opposed the November rate cut, a source familiar with the decision said.

Another ECB source said the dissenters would have been willing to back a rate cut in December that might have included further monetary easing by ending a policy of “sterilising” past ECB purchases of euro zone government bonds.

That could free up another 200 billion euros of liquidity which the bank currently withdraws each week to compensate for purchases in 2010-11 of Greek, Portuguese, Irish, Spanish and Italian bonds under the now defunct securities market programme.

Praet acknowledged on Tuesday that growth was fragile, inflation low and credit subdued. “Things are improving, but it is still a fragile environment,” he said.

The U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan have all resorted to QE to revive economic growth since the global financial crisis of 2008 but such measures are extremely divisive among the 23 members of the ECB’s Governing Council.

One bank economist said a shift to a QE policy would be a game-changer for the euro zone.

“Should the ECB really go down the route of buying government bonds, it would be transformative,” said Greg Fuzesi at JP Morgan in London. “It would change perceptions of where the euro area is heading and could have a huge effect on the outlook.”

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Reuters: Bonds News

Read more about WRAPUP 3-ECB, urged by OECD to buy assets, says all options on the table and other interesting subjects concerning Bonds at TheDailyNewsReport.com

WRAPUP 3-U.S. factory output shows signs of broadening beyond autos

WRAPUP 3-U.S. factory output shows signs of broadening beyond autos
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Fri Nov 15, 2013 10:54am EST

 * Manufacturing output rises 0.3 percent in October * Weak mining, utilities hold down industrial production * New York state factory activity contracts in November By Lucia Mutikani WASHINGTON, Nov 15 (Reuters) - U.S. manufacturing output rose for a third straight month in October even as automobile assembly fell, suggesting a broadening in activity in a sector regaining momentum after hitting a speed bump early this year. While other data on Friday showed factory activity fell in New York state early this month, economists said that probably was a delayed reaction to last month"s 16-day partial shutdown of the federal government. "This (New York state) report does not provide any basis to be concerned about the broader outlook for manufacturing activity," said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics in New York. Manufacturing output increased 0.3 percent last month after edging up 0.1 percent in September, the Federal Reserve said. The increase, which matched economists" expectations, was despite a 1.3 percent fall in auto production. Auto assembly fell for the first time since July. Manufacturing output last month was supported by gains in the production of primary metals, furniture and computer and electronic products, among others. "The gains in non-motor vehicle-related production signals a broadening in the production base beyond motor vehicles, which has been the key driver for the U.S. manufacturing sector output in recent months," said Millan Mulraine, senior economist at TD Securities in New York. In a second report, the New York Federal Reserve said its "Empire State" index of business conditions fell to minus 2.21 this month from 1.52 in October. It was the first negative reading since May. A reading below zero indicates a contraction in factory activity in the region. Economists said the survey was not a good predictor of national manufacturing activity as a small amount of factory production took place in New York state. Manufacturing is regaining some steam after hitting a soft patch early in the year. With the Institute for Supply Management survey signaling strength in national factory activity and global trade data improving, economists expect manufacturing to accelerate in the months ahead. Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher, while the dollar was weaker against a basket of currencies as investors continued to digest remarks by Fed chair nominee Janet Yellen that the central bank"s accommodative policies would continue. U.S. Treasury debt prices were slightly weaker. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION DIPS Despite the rise in manufacturing output last month, overall industrial production slipped 0.1 percent, weighed down by declines at power plants and mines. Weather-sensitive utilities output fell 1.1 percent last month after surging 4.5 percent in September. Mining production contracted 1.6 percent in October, the first drop in seven months. The Fed attributed the fall to temporary shutdowns of oil and gas rigs in the Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Karen approached. Last month, the amount of industrial capacity in use fell 0.2 percentage point to 78.1 percent. Industrial capacity utilization - a measure of how fully firms are using their resources - was 2.1 percentage points below its long-run average. Officials at the Fed tend to look at utilization measures as a signal of how much "slack" remains in the economy, and how much room growth has to run before it becomes inflationary. Economists said the fall in capacity utilization could stoke fears of disinflation and make it difficult for the Fed to scale back its massive monthly bond purchasing program. The lack of inflation pressures was underscored by a third report from the Labor Department showing import prices fell 0.7 percent in October as petroleum prices fell by the most in nearly 1-1/2 years. Prices excluding petroleum barely rose last month and were down 1.3 percent from a year ago. "With price growth slowing in the European Union and the U.S., central banks will find it harder to justify near-term reduction of stimulus," said Jay Morelock, an economist at FTN Financial in New York. 

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Reuters: Bonds News

Read more about WRAPUP 3-U.S. factory output shows signs of broadening beyond autos and other interesting subjects concerning Bonds at TheDailyNewsReport.com

WRAPUP 2-China unveils boldest reforms in decades, shows Xi in command

WRAPUP 2-China unveils boldest reforms in decades, shows Xi in command
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Fri Nov 15, 2013 9:11am EST

* China’s unveils boldest reform plan in decades

* Document provides detail missing from initial outline

* Scope of proposed changes show Xi’s firm grip on power

* Much stress on social reforms alongside economic overhaul

By Kevin Yao and Ben Blanchard

BEIJING, Nov 15 (Reuters) – China unwrapped its boldest set of economic and social reforms in nearly three decades on Friday, relaxing its one-child policy and further freeing up markets in order to put the world’s second-largest economy on a more stable footing.

The sweeping changes helped dispel doubts about the leadership’s zest for the reforms needed to give the economy fresh momentum as three decades of breakneck expansion shows signs of faltering.

A reform document released by the Communist Party following a four-day conclave of its top brass promised land and residence registration reforms needed to boost China’s urban population and allow its transition to a western-style service and consumption-driven economy.

Pricing of fuels, electricity and other key resources – now a source of major distortions – would be mainly decided by markets, while Beijing also pledged to speed up the opening up of its capital account and further financial liberalisation.

“The reforms are unprecedented,” said Xu Hongcai, senior economist at the China Centre for International Economic Exchanges, a well-connected Beijing think tank. “Reforms in 1990s were limited to some areas, now reforms are all-round.”

President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang, appointed in March, announced several breakthroughs in social policy, pledging to unify rural and urban social security systems and to abolish controversial labour camps, the official Xinhua news agency reported, citing the document.

The plans, more comprehensive and specific than initially thought, also dispelled concerns that Xi would need more time to take full charge of China’s vast party and government bureaucracy.

China-watchers took the establishment of a working group to lead economic reform and a new State Security Council as further signs of how effectively Xi managed to consolidate power just eight months after he officially took over.

“This is almost an unprecedented move toward unlimited power,” said Zhang Lifan, a Beijing-based historian and political commentator.

The initial brief reform outline published on Tuesday triggered a stock market sell-off, with investors taking its scant details as a sign of a lack of commitment on Xi’s part or his inability to convert vested interests, such as powerful state-owned companies.

But a raft of specific policy plans ranging from interest rate and currency regime liberalisation to residence registration and land reforms and the opening up of some of the protected sectors to private and foreign firms seemed to put such concerns to rest.

The commitment to abolish labour camps was also remarkable, given that several political sources had told Reuters this was an area where Xi was facing much resistance.

Few commentators had also expected any significant attempts to reform powerful state monopolies, even though many economists argue that other reforms will have only limited success if the big state-owned firms’ stranglehold on key markets is not tackled.

The initial outline of the plans on Tuesday had affirmed those firms’ strategic role in the economy. But the longer report on Friday raised state firm dividend payments, allowed private firms to enter some of the protected sectors and encouraged them to take part in reforming the state-owned firms.

What appeared to be an early leak of the document on Chinese social media set off a rally in Chinese stock markets hours before its official release, with investors cheering its relatively detailed language on reforms.

Still, economists said that having a good plan was only part of the success and making the ambitious agenda a reality would be the new leaders’ true challenge.

“Based on the headlines … they are moving in a positive direction,” said Jan von Gerich, fixed income chief analyst with Nordea Bank in Helsinki. “But one should not get too carried away as this will be a long process.”

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Reuters: Financial Services and Real Estate

Read more about WRAPUP 2-China unveils boldest reforms in decades, shows Xi in command and other interesting subjects concerning Real Estate at TheDailyNewsReport.com

Weekly News Wrap-Up 4.5.13

5 April 2013 6 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com 4.5.13 

Just three stories today, but they are big ones–North Korea, the Middle East and the ongoing banking crisis.  North Korea has rattled its saber in the past, but not this loudly.  Any talk that this is another bluff to get the world to back off on the sanctions for its nuclear program is underestimating the seriousness of the situation.  North Korea has the 5^th biggest army in the world, and it faces the 6^th biggest army in the world in South Korea.  Could the North win an all-out war?  Probably not, but that does not mean it couldn’t do serious damage to South Korea.  The U.S. is taking the threat seriously because it has been flying training missions with B-2 bombers as well as stealth fighters.  The B-2 is designed to carry nuclear weapons, and some in Congress are talking “preemptive strike.”  Mistakes can happen, and when countries are armed with nuclear weapons, it amplifies this dire situation.   

The Middle East is on fire, and the center of the blaze is Syria.  There were more reports that the conflict is spreading to neighboring countries.  It was reported that Syrian jets bombed targets in Lebanon.  There have also been reports in recent months of attacks into Turkey and Israel.  Speaking of Israel, the problem of Iran’s nuclear program is nowhere near being resolved, and once again, there were warnings given that Iran is only months away from getting enough material for a weapon.  Iran says its nuclear program is for the peaceful production of energy.  That too is a dicey situation with no clear peaceful resolution in sight. 

Don’t think this banking crisis is over—it’s not.  The situation in Cyprus is far from over, and people like James Turk are warning a big bond default from a country like Argentina could send the financial system into shock.  Other financial experts like Jim Rogers, Peter Schiff and Egon Von Greyerz all warn that bank deposits will be up for grabs in the next financial meltdown.  Greg Hunter analyzes these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.  

Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog

Weekly News Wrap-Up 4.5.13