Amerikkan Futbol defeats racism on the battlefield

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Amerikkan Futbol defeats racism on the battlefield

The incredibly shrunken 2014 battlefield

The GOP’s chances rest on defeating three of four Democratic incumbents in red states. | AP Photos

Battleground 2014 is shaping up to be a very small place.

With the House sliced and diced into districts that leave most incumbents insulated from any serious reelection challenge —and a host of prized Senate recruits from both parties deciding they’d rather just stay home — control of Congress could be decided next year by the fewest number of states and congressional districts in a decade or more.

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The parties out of power are in a critical window over the next several months to expand the map or risk ceding seats that should be within reach. They’re confident they’ll pull it off: Check back in the new year and the landscape will look a lot different, they say.

But at this point, the high-stakes fight for so few competitive seats means candidates in targeted races can look forward to 16 months of microscopic scrutiny and a flood of attack ads leading up to Election Day.

(PHOTOS: Senators up for election in 2014)

“It changes the whole situation,” said Guy Harrison, a former National Republican Congressional Committee executive director. “For those people caught in that crossfire, it’s an entirely new experience.”

A smaller playing field is typically easier for the party in power to defend, which should be good news for House Republicans and Senate Democrats. But the landscape on each side is not level.

House Republicans are strongly favored to remain in power, absent some jolt that triggers a voter revolt against Speaker John Boehner and his rowdy GOP conference. Some handicappers see the party actually increasing its 17-seat majority.

The Senate will take a lot less to flip: the handful of states expected to determine control of the chamber features electorates that favor the GOP, as well as a history of electing Republicans to statewide office. To return to the majority, the GOP needs to turn six Democratic seats red.

(Also on POLITICO: Begich faces tough race, raises $ 1M)

The Cook Political Report currently rates 66 House races as competitive, the smallest number at this point in an election cycle since 2004. In 2012, about 75 seats were considered to be in play, and in 2010 there were around 100 targeted contests.

On the Senate side, Cook ranks no contests as tossups. It considers only two seats now controlled by Democrats, in West Virginia and Montana, as “leaning” Republican — and no GOP-held seats as favoring Democrats. Though several other states are still very much in play, it’s the least competitive landscape at this point in the election cycle that the respected handicapper has found in 20 years.

“It’s almost like a presidential map with the battlegrounds,” said a Democratic strategist involved in the fight. “You’ll see the races start earlier. You’ll see a lot of activity in those states. It’s going to be a very focused cycle. In 2012, the map was just so open.”

(Also on POLITICO: Kay Hagan raises over $ 2 million)

The main reason for the shrunken battlefield is the failure of both parties to land prized recruits. Time and again, top-tier potential candidates have decided the lure of the Senate isn’t strong enough to endure a grueling campaign that might or might not end well.

Former Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer, the party’s best hope of keeping Sen. Max Baucus’s seat in their column, was only the latest example when he opted last weekend not to run. Democrats haven’t turned up strong candidates in two states where members of their party are retiring, West Virginia or South Dakota, making them likely GOP pickups.

Republicans have had their own recruitment shortcomings. The party has yet to field quality candidates in purple and blue states that, if history and demographics are any guide, should be competitive.

The GOP also has yet to capitalize on Democratic retirements in Iowa and Michigan. The Democratic candidates, Reps. Bruce Braley of Iowa and Gary Peters of Michigan, have already cleared the field, while the GOP’s best options, Reps. Tom Latham and Mike Rogers, opted against running.

POLITICO – TOP Stories

The incredibly shrunken 2014 battlefield