Friday’s much anticipated State Department report on the Keystone XL pipeline is a body blow to environmentalists but does nothing to change President Barack Obama’s two eventual choices and the fact that either one will be unpopular.
Approve Keystone and he angers his liberal base — and donors. Reject it and it remains a thorn in the administration’s side for three more years.
The State Department report only reinforces the conventional wisdom is that Obama will eventually approve the Canada-to-Texas pipeline.
But there’s no report the Obama administration can write that will convince greens the pipeline — and associated oil sands development — isn’t an environmental disaster-in-waiting. The effects of the carbon dioxide emissions from extracting the raw materials and risk of a pipeline break are too great, they say.
And nothing is going to slow down lobbying efforts by pipeline builder TransCanada, the Canadian government and the oil and gas industry. There also is no stopping Republicans, who have made the pipeline at a symbol of what they say is Obama’s failure to create jobs or keep gasoline prices low, although there’s no guarantee the pipeline would do either one in a significant matter.
So for now, back to waiting.
The political pros and cons for Obama are anything but simple. And his decision — by no means imminent — will affect his legacy, the prospects for congressional Democrats and the future of the liberal environmental movement, for starters.
(Also on POLITICO: Big win for big oil)
A group of big Democratic donors, including Esprit co-founder Susie Tompkins Buell and Taco Bell heir and Democracy Alliance head Rob McKay, have publicly pressured Obama to reject the pipeline. Billionaire Tom Steyer, who poured money to help Terry McAuliffe win the Virginia governor’s race last year, ran an anti-Keystone ad during the State of the Union and is expected to spend millions of dollars more.
But Obama isn’t running again and several moderate Senate Democrats, including Mary Landrieu, Mark Begich, Mark Pryor and Kay Hagan, already support building the pipeline. It’d take an anti-Obama talking point off the table and avoid the possibility of an international spat with Canada.
Greens also realistically have nowhere to go — even if disappointed on one issue, a Democratic president and Senate is far better than anything the GOP can offer them.
About 56 percent of Americans support building the pipeline, with 41 percent opposed, according to a poll conducted in November and December by Stanford University and Resources for the Future. But those numbers may be squishy — environmental issues generally rank far below topics like jobs, the economy and health care when it comes down to how much voters care.
(Also on POLITICO: Obama’s power play)
“These findings are suggestive but not conclusive,” said RFF President Phil Sharp told USA Today. “We simply don’t know how firm people’s attitudes are about this.”
In fact, the Republican pressure and expensive lobbying campaigns haven’t actually forced the president to do anything on Keystone but sit and wait for the State Department report. And the issue didn’t put Mitt Romney into the White House, despite his campaign pledge to sign the order on his first day in office to build the pipeline.
Building Keystone would in theory both appeal to independents and Republicans, yet it is just as likely that Obama wouldn’t get credit or love for granting the pipeline permit. The Republicans that have spent five years attacking his administration’s energy policies are not going to suddenly lay off.
In theory, the same moderate Democrats who support the pipeline could benefit from having another opportunity to separate themselves from an unpopular president. But the GOP is going to attack them no matter what.
“Politically, it’s an enormous opportunity and highlights the Obama/Reid anti-energy agenda that vulnerable Democrats like Mary Landrieu, Mark Pryor, Mark Begich and [Rep.] Gary Peters [D-Mich.] represent,” said Senate GOP campaign spokesman Brad Dayspring.
For environmentalists, rejecting the pipeline is a way Obama can help cement his progressive legacy.
Obama laid out an ambitious climate agenda at a Georgetown University speech last June, but the realities of a divided and hostile Congress dictates that he limit himself to regulations or executive actions. The president has spent the last two weeks, including his State of the Union address, talking about just that – things he can do without the help of Congress.
The Keystone XL pipeline fits squarely in that mold — the choice is his, not the House or Senate’s.
“It’s pretty clear that Republican extremists in Congress are making it exceedingly difficult to make progress on other important issues,” said Tiernan Sittenfeld of the League of Conservation Voters. “The good news on addressing climate change is that President Obama has so much authority. He can go big and bold and do things that are truly transformative and will leave a lasting legacy.”
Obama"s options on Keystone
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