Election night 2013 is shaping up to be a historically boring affair | Harry J Enten
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All three major races in New Jersey, New York, and Virginia are set to be blowouts. It’s something we haven’t seen in 40 years
In case you couldn’t tell, I love elections. But unlike many folks, my favorite year in the four-year cycle of United States elections is not the presidential one. I enjoy getting to know the candidates in state and local contests in a way that only midterm and off-year elections allow. The problem is that there isn’t a “major” competitive race in 2013. This year, we may have a new election night record for earliest announcement of the winners in an off-year following a presidential election.
What do I mean by all of this?
The year after the presidential election features three marquee races: New Jersey governor, New York City mayor, and Virginia governor. New Jersey usually includes outsized personalities in two major media markets (Philadelphia and New York). New York City mayor is basically the same thing, but in the country’s largest city. Virginia is a swing state that is often predictive of the next year’s midterm elections and is next to the nation’s capital.
None of that has necessarily changed this year. New Jersey’s Chris Christie continues to amaze with his uncommonly wide coalition for a Republican. Bill de Blasio’s going to return Democrats to Gracie Mansion in New York City for the first time in 20 years. And you’ll rarely see two major state-wide candidates as disliked as Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Ken Cuccinelli in Virginia.
The difficulty for the electorally excited is that all the probable winners are going to do so rather easily. Christie is up by nearly 30pt, De Blasio is ahead by over 40pt, and McAuliffe is leading by about 10pt. Drama is sorely lacking in the final week before election day.
It’s not unusual for one or even two of these races to be yawners. There were two fantastic 1989 races in New York and Virginia where African Americans were elected in tight races to their respective positions for the first time, while New Jersey was a blowout victory for Jim Florio. In 1973, there were two 35pt lifeless races in New York and New Jersey, but was saved by a 1pt affair in the Old Dominion.
The difference this year is that all three big races should be called soon after the polls close. I went back over the past 40 years of election results to get an idea of how rare the snoozefest of 2013 is for the after-presidential-off-year election troika. It may end up being historic.
The table here is sorted by the closest contest, and I put in the current Real Clear Politics averages for the 2013 races.
What you see is that only 1985 had a wider margin at 10.41pt for the closest contest than 2013 currently. It’s entirely conceivable that 2013 could beat 1985, especially since the latest Washington Post poll has McAuliffe up by 12pt in Virginia. Therefore, 2013 could actually end up being the most boring general election year for the New Jersey, New York City, Virginia triumvirate since 1973.
A closer look reveals that 1985 and 2013 are really in a completely different world than the larger dataset. More than half the years since 1973 had at least one race where the margin was less than 3pt. Eight out of 11 had at least one race where the margin was mid-single digits or lower. Only 1977, 1985, and 2013 were near or above double digits in their closest race.
What separates 1985 and 2013 from 1977 is the fact that two of the races were or are going to be landslides. Even though none of the 1977 races were nail biters, they were all modestly competitive. None had margins of greater than 14pt. 1985 had – and 2013 looks to ultimately have – two races in which the winning candidate won by more than 25pt.
If 2013 contained two non-blowouts, then there would at least be a decent chance that one might get close in the final week. Maybe there’d be a scandal, or maybe the electoral gods would find some new and interesting way to insert some doubt in the final outcome of one of the races.
As it is, there are no signs that anything is in doubt in 2013. Christie’s lead is expanding, De Blasio’s is steady, and McAuliffe has been widening the gap over the past two months. It’s almost certainly over, unless there is some tremendous surprise.
I guess the good news for the candidates is that they don’t have to worry about the final outcome. For the electoral junkies, it’s a sad, sad state of affairs.
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