At Iranian Colleges, Some See Brighter Future In Another Country

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hide captionIranian high school students sit for their university entrance examination in Tehran in 2009. Iran’s economy has been struggling in recent years, and many graduates feel they have few career options.

Mona Hoobehfekr/AFP/Getty Images

Iranian high school students sit for their university entrance examination in Tehran in 2009. Iran’s economy has been struggling in recent years, and many graduates feel they have few career options.

Mona Hoobehfekr/AFP/Getty Images

President Hassan Rouhani appeals to Iranian college students when he talks about creating more opportunities for the young. But the clock is ticking. Many of those born long after the 1979 Islamic revolution see limited prospects at home and envision a better future abroad.

Outside Tehran University, Iran’s largest, you can find earnest young students like Fazle Mahmoudian, 21, a math major who says he knows job prospects are grim, though he’s not looking to leave.

“Unfortunately, there aren’t many jobs for young graduates right now,” he said. “But our supreme leader (Ayaltollah Ali Khamenei) says if you rely on your own potential, everything will work out well.”

But it seems many more share the view of Said, 27, a post-graduate student who says many of his friends are looking to go abroad. He said he will probably leave as well, which is why he won’t give his last name.

He noted that the new government’s effort to rein in inflation and stabilize the Iranian currency may have the unintended consequence of increasing the number of departures.

A few years ago, Iranians exchanged their money into U.S. dollars at a reasonable rate. But the value of the Iranian rial has plummeted and it’s now a increasingly expensive for Iranians to raise enough money to go abroad.

Emigration from Iran is not a new issue. Migration Information Source, a U.S. non-profit, said back in 2006 that Iran was experiencing what it called one of “the highest rates of brain drain in the world.”

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hide captionIran’s President Hassan Rouhani speaks to students at Shahid Beheshti University in Tehran on Dec. 7, 2013. Rouhani says he wants to create more opportunities, but many college-age Iranians are skeptical about the pace of change and some are looking to go abroad.

Mohammad Berno/AP

Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani speaks to students at Shahid Beheshti University in Tehran on Dec. 7, 2013. Rouhani says he wants to create more opportunities, but many college-age Iranians are skeptical about the pace of change and some are looking to go abroad.

Mohammad Berno/AP

Arman, 24, is studying architecture, having switched from chemical engineering. He asked that his last name not be used, because he doesn’t want to jeopardize his chances of getting an exit visa. When asked what opportunities he and his classmates could look forward to, he shook his head.

“Actually, you could say none. You could see people, especially young people, who are trying to run away,” he said.

Arman said this is true at his private university, where students from better-off families tend to go and that the same feeling prevails at the much larger Tehran University, a public institution.

“I sneak into Tehran University because I really want to see those people. Actually, they all just want to escape,” he said.

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Parallels

Iran’s President Marks Revolution With Call For Negotiations

Arman and other students say the reason Iran turns out so many math and science majors is because those disciplines are more attractive to foreign post-graduate schools or companies. They also say it’s not just money that draws young Iranians away –- it’s the stifling social and political atmosphere.

Middle East

Iran’s President Rouhani Gets The Benefit Of The Doubt, For Now

Amir graduated to work in the family business, but his real passion is leftist politics, which is why he won’t give his full name. If youth is the time to experiment with diverse, even radical ideas, he said Iran right now is no place for the young. People are still reeling from the violent suppression of street protests following the 2009 presidential election.

Rouhani’s election victory last summer hasn’t made much difference, he said.

“I think it’s not really a change. We can’t have any collective groups, we don’t have a party,” he said. “They pushed people in Iran to vote between bad and worse. So people did that.”

In his address this week marking the 35^th anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Rouhani singled out Iran’s universities as a place where restrictions are easing.

But the continuing desire to leave suggests that it will take far more than a better economy to persuade young Iranians that they’re seeing genuine change and not just cosmetic improvement.

News

At Iranian Colleges, Some See Brighter Future In Another Country

Semi-official Iranian news agency posts insane article claiming ‘US-Alien-Hitler’ link

By End the Lie

(Image credit: screenshot of Fars News Agency report)

The semi-official Fars News Agency (FNA) has posted an absolutely insane article that reads like something published by The Onion, claiming some kind of clearly imaginary “US-Alien-Hitler” link. Seriously.

Read our latest posts: “New drone transforms from a helicopter into a truck to evacuate troops” and “Russia says they will continue to back Assad; hundreds killed in rebel infighting”

If you believe any of this, I’m sure someone has some wonderful oceanfront property in Oklahoma to sell you.

In what appears to be an attempt to shatter what little credibility FNA had, the news outlet published details (reported mirrored via screenshots here) on what they call a “stunning [Russian] Federal Security Services (FSB) report” detailing a supposed “alien/extraterrestrial intelligence agenda.”

The FNA report cites the equally insane website WhatDoesItMean.com, a site promoting wild alien-focused conspiracy theories and a host of nonsense based on never-to-be-seen reports with headlines that almost always include words like “stuns” and “shocks.”

FNA apparently was happy to pick up the “stunning” report, which doesn’t actually exist of course, on “incontrovertible proof” of an “alien/extraterrestrial intelligence agenda” driving U.S. domestic and international policy since at least 1945.

FNA reports that one of the “many explosive revelations in this FSB report,” a report that, again, doesn’t actually exist outside of the minds of FNA and “Sorcha Faal” of WhatDoesItMean.com, is the confirmation of some kind of imaginary alien race behind the “stunning rise of Nazi Germany during the 1930’s.”

This imaginary alien race, called “Tall Whites,” is somehow responsible for the rise of Nazi Germany, though this is, of course, never explained.

FNA cites supposed documents leaked by former NSA contractor Edward Snowden that state these “Tall Whites” met with President Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1954. If it isn’t abundantly clear at this point, it should be repeated that there is absolutely no evidence to back up any of these claims whatsoever. This is purely the product of severe delusion.

These “Tall Whites” also have some kind of top-secret plan for world domination, according to FNA. The report also claims there is some “cataclysmic power struggle is currently underway against this ‘secret regime’ now headed by Obama by ‘forces unknown.’” The report also claims there are other “alien-extraterrestrial power[s]” at work in this giant imaginary scheme.

How any of this is supposed to make any sense whatsoever is unclear. It seems that FNA will publish absolutely anything in an attempt to make the U.S. look bad, even if it does not even begin to make the slightest bit of sense.

FNA also cites former Canadian Defense Minister Paul Hellyer, a man who makes similarly baseless claims about aliens and unidentified flying objects. Hellyer claimed last year that “at least two” live aliens “are working with the United States government,” according to The Huffington Post.

In a Jan. 5 interview, Hellyer claimed that aliens live on one of Saturn’s moons, on Venus and Mars, among a wide range of other places. Hellyer even claims that there is some kind of “Federation” of aliens and that Kevlar vests come from alien technology.

Why anyone would take Hellyer’s claims seriously or broadcast them on television is beyond me. Then again, the video of Hellyer’s interview has received over 260,000 views in just eight days, so I guess if you’re just looking to get viewers then broadcasting claims with absolutely no evidence whatsoever is fine. Thankfully, the interview wasn’t totally credulous at all times (although she was still far too credulous) and you at least have to give her credit for somehow keeping a straight face.

[H/T: Mediaite]

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Semi-official Iranian news agency posts insane article claiming ‘US-Alien-Hitler’ link

Iranian official warns on sanctions

‘If Congress adopts sanctions, it shows lack of seriousness,’ he says. | Reuters

A new round of congressional sanctions will kill Iran’s nuclear talks with the United States and other powerful nations, according to Iran’s top diplomat.

As the Senate returns Monday for a work period that some hope to use to craft a new economic sanctions bill, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif warned lawmakers that even delayed sanctions will eviscerate an interim deal to drawback Iran’s nuclear program in return for some sanction relief.

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If lawmakers decide to pass legislation imposing new penalties on Iran while a more permanent agreement is negotiated, then “the entire deal is dead,” Zarif said in an interview with TIME.

“We do not like to negotiate under duress. And if Congress adopts sanctions, it shows lack of seriousness and a lack of desire to achieve a resolution on the part of the United States,” Zarif said. “I have a parliament. My parliament can also adopt various legislation that can go into effect if negotiations fail. But if we start doing that, I don’t think that we will be getting anywhere. Now we have tried to ask our members of parliament to avoid that.”

Zarif’s remarks come as the Obama administration descends on Capitol Hill to try to ward off hawkish lawmakers’ attempts to pass fresh sanctions. Secretary of State John Kerry will testify before the House Foreign Affairs Committee on Tuesday and top Treasury and State department officials will make the case against new sanctions before the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday.

Several powerful lawmakers on the Banking panel, including Democratic Sens. Chuck Schumer of New York and Robert Menendez of New Jersey, have vowed to pass legislation that would take effect if ongoing diplomatic talks with Iran fail. But Senate Democratic aides doubt there is time this month for the Senate to pass sanctions, likely kicking any such legislation to next year.

POLITICO – Congress

Iranian official warns on sanctions

Turkey Filmfest screens Iranian films

Two Iranian cinematic creations have been screened at the 2013 edition of Istanbul International Children’s Film Festival (IICFF) in Turkey.

A Time to Love by Ebrahim Forouzesh and The Sound of My Foot by Mehrdad Khoshbakht represented Iran’s cinema in the Turkish festival.

Forouzesh’s 90-minute movie features the story of a disabled boy and his dreams that come true one day.

The film was presented in several international film festivals. It also won prize at the 2012 Art Amphora Balkan Festival of Films and Television Programs for Children and Youth in Bulgaria.

Khoshbakht’s screen creation, The Sound of My Foot recounts the story of a 13-year-old runner who lost his foot after stepping on a landmine but he tries to continue as a successful runner with an artificial foot.

The movie received top prize at the 12th China International Children’s Film Festival held in September, 2013.

The film was nominated for the Best Film, the Best director, the Best Sound Mix and the Best Screenwriter awards of the 2011 Rassegna Cinematografica Internazionale Sport Film festival in Italy.

It was also candidate for Best Film, Best Paralympics Film, Best Sound, Best Actor in a Leading Role, Best Screenplay and Best Director in the Italy’s festival that was held in Palermo.

Established in 2003, Istanbul children film festival aims to bring children closer to culture and art and takes an important step in creating the cinema audience of the future.

The 2013 edition of the festival took place from November 1 through 8.

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Turkey Filmfest screens Iranian films

Iranian patients suffer most from sanctions

Iranian patients suffer most from sanctions
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‘Iranian spy’ appears in Israeli court, will remain in custody

Published time: September 30, 2013 17:51

Ali Mansouri, 58, arrested at Ben Gurion Airport on suspicion of espionage, sits in between guards at the Petah Tikva District Court on the first day of their trial on September 30, 2013. (AFP Photo / Jack Guez)

An Israeli court has remanded in custody a man suspected of spying for Iran. Ali Mansouri was reportedly arrested while carrying photos of the US Embassy in Tel-Aviv. Israeli officials accuse him of collecting “intelligence for a possible terror attack.”

News of Mansouri’s detention was revealed on Sunday, and the decision was made at “a high level,” according to an Israeli police representative. The court remanded him in custody for eight more days, although the 55-year-old has not yet been charged.

Iranian-born Mansouri, who holds a Belgian passport and was traveling under the guise of Belgian Alex Mans, was detained at Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion International Airport on September 11, Israel’s Shin Bet security service reported.

Shin Bet also stated that the suspect confessed to having been promised US$ 1 million to use his position as a businessman to set up companies to “harm Israeli and Western interests.” Several websites and a Facebook page were created to make his business seem legitimate, Mansouri added.

However, police said that Mansouri hadn’t disclosed all information concerning his activities in Israel, and therefore asked that his remand be extended.

Shin Bet also stated that the suspect’s picture-taking outside the US Embassy in Tel Aviv was regarded as an attempt “to collect intelligence for a possible terror attack.” 

Mansouri’s lawyer has refuted the allegations: “The apocalyptic picture that the Shin Bet is painting is a lot more complicated and the attempt to claim that our client came here in order to carry out attacks in Israel is far from reality and without foundation,” he said.

Mansouri himself did not make any comments during his court appearance.

Local media expressed suspicions over the news, as the arrest announcement coincided with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu flight to the US for a visit focused on Iran’s nuclear program.

“Security services do not hurry to reveal, of their own volition, recent espionage affairs,” defense commentator Alex Fishman wrote for Israeli daily Yediot Aharonot.

“An espionage network is too important an operational card to trade with publicly, unless there is a particularly important operational or diplomatic interest that requires such disclosure,” he added.

The commentator also pointed out that an exact diplomatic interest may be behind the move – an attempt to embarrass Iran’s leadership following a successful PR campaign carried out in the US by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani.

RT – News

‘Iranian spy’ appears in Israeli court, will remain in custody

At UN, Obama welcomes signs of Iranian moderation

U.S. President Barack Obama speaks during the 68th session of the General Assembly at United Nations headquarters Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2013. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)

U.S. President Barack Obama speaks during the 68th session of the General Assembly at United Nations headquarters Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2013. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)

U.S. President Barack Obama addresses the 68th session of the United Nations General Assembly, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2013. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

United States Ambassador to the United Nations Samantha Power, left, Secretary of State John Kerry, second from right, and National Advisor Susan Rice, right, listen while U.S. President Barack Obama speaks during the 68th session of the General Assembly at United Nations headquarters. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)

U.S. President Barack Obama speaks during the 68th session of the General Assembly at United Nations headquarters, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2013. (AP Photo/Mary Altaffer)

President Barack Obama addresses the 68th session of the United Nations General Assembly, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2013. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

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UNITED NATIONS (AP) — President Barack Obama on Tuesday welcomed the new Iranian government’s pursuit of a “more moderate course,” saying it should offer the basis for a breakthrough on Iran’s nuclear impasse with the United Nations and the U.S. He signaled a willingness to directly engage Iran’s leaders, tasking Secretary of State John Kerry with pursuing that diplomacy with Tehran.

“The roadblocks may prove to be too great, but I firmly believe the diplomatic path must be tested,” Obama said during an address to the U.N. General Assembly.

Obama issued a stern message to the international body itself, saying its ability to meet the test of the times is being challenged by the dispute over what to do about Syria’s chemical weapons. He called on the U.N. Security Council to pass a resolution that would enforce consequences on Syrian President Bashar Assad if he fails to follow a U.S.-Russian deal to turn his chemical weapon stockpiles over to the international community.

Obama also announced that the United States would provide $ 339 million in additional humanitarian aid to refugees and countries affected by the Syrian civil war, bringing the total U.S. aid devoted to that crisis to nearly $ 1.4 billion.

As the General Assembly meetings opened, the situation in Syria was overshadowed by a flurry of friendly gestures between the U.S. and Iran’s new government. Obama said recent statements by Iranian President Hasan Rouhani, a moderate cleric elected in June, should offer the basis for a meaningful agreement on Iran’s disputed nuclear program.

The West has long suspected that Iran is seeking a nuclear weapon. Tehran has consistently denied the charge.

Obama, reflecting the skepticism of many in the U.S. and around the world, said Rouhani’s “conciliatory words will have to be matched by actions that are transparent and verifiable.”

Obama said he was asking Kerry to pursue diplomatic progress with Iran, in coordination with five other world powers. Kerry will join representatives from those nations Thursday in a meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif.

It’s unclear whether Kerry and Zarif will meet one-on-one on the sidelines of that meeting. And Obama also offered no hints of whether he will meet Tuesday with Rouhani. Even a brief handshake would be significant, marking the first such encounter between U.S. and Iranian leaders in 36 years.

Zarif joined the Iranian delegation in the hall for Obama’s address.

Obama arrived at the annual U.N. meetings with diplomatic opportunities, not only on Iran and Syria but also on the elusive effort to seal lasting peace between the Israelis and Palestinians. While the prospects of a peace accord remain as slim as ever, the two sides have resumed direct talks, partly as a result of months of lobbying by Kerry.

The president praised Israeli and Palestinian leaders for their willingness to take “significant political risks” in order to get back to the negotiating table.

“Now the rest of us must also be willing to take risks,” he said, adding that the United States must recognize that Israel’s security depends on the formation of a Palestinian state.

Obama will meet later Tuesday with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. He’ll also hold talks at the White House next week with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Israel is watching closely as the U.S. and Iran edge close to direct negotiations. The previous Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, repeatedly threatened the destruction of Israel, and Israeli leaders have pushed Obama to be more forceful with the threat of military action in response to Tehran’s pursuit of a nuclear weapon.

While Obama has said all options are on the table when it comes to dealing with Iran, he has preferred to use economic sanctions as a prod. The sanctions have had a substantial effect on Iran, leading to a spike in inflation and unemployment.

American officials say the Iranian public’s frustration with a deteriorating economy led to Rouhani’s election and is driving his change in tone. But it is still unclear whether Iran is willing to take the steps the U.S. is seeking in order to ease the sanctions, including curbing uranium enrichment and shutting down the Fordo underground nuclear facility.

Obama also addressed the continued turmoil in the Arab world, where pro-democracy movements have had mixed results over the past two years. He defended the White House’s decision to maintain ties with the interim government in Egypt, which took over after the military ousted the country’s first democratically elected leader.

However, he said future American support “will depend on Egypt’s progress in pursuing a democratic path.”

The U.S. provides Egypt with about $ 1.5 billion a year, mostly military aid. The president’s top national security aides have recommended suspending much of the money.

___

Associated Press writers Edith Lederer in New York and Ali Akbar Dareini in Tehran, Iran, contributed to this report.

__

Follow Julie Pace on Twitter at http://twitter.com/jpaceDC

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Copyright 2013 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Top Headlines

At UN, Obama welcomes signs of Iranian moderation

Obama directs Kerry to pursue Iranian nuclear deal

UNITED NATIONS (AP) — President Barack Obama says he has directed Secretary of State John Kerry to pursue a nuclear weapons agreement with Iran and that he firmly believes “the diplomatic path must be tested.”

Obama told the United Nations General Assembly Tuesday he’s encouraged that Iranian President Hasan Rouhani is pursuing a more moderate course. But he said Rouhani’s “conciliatory words will have to be matched by actions that are transparent and verifiable.”

The West has long suspected that Iran is seeking a nuclear weapon. Tehran has consistently denied the charge.

It’s still unclear if Obama will meet with Rouhani while at the United Nations. The leaders of the two countries haven’t had face-to-face contact in more than 30 years.

U.S. officials say no meeting is planned, although they haven’t ruled one out.

Associated Press

Copyright 2013 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

U.S. Headlines

Obama directs Kerry to pursue Iranian nuclear deal

Moscow, Tehran to sign agreement on building new nuclear power plant – Iranian FM

The reactor building at the Russian-built Bushehr nuclear power plant in southern Iran, 1200 kms south of Tehran. (Reuters/Mehr News Agency/Majid Asgaripour)

Moscow and Tehran will soon sign an agreement on the construction of a new nuclear power plant in the Islamic Republic, Iran’s Foreign Minister announced.

“Iran has held consultations with the Russian side and soon an agreement of mutual understanding will be signed on the construction of a new nuclear power plant,” Ali Akbar Salehi, Iranian foreign minister and former nuclear chief, said on Sunday.

He reiterated that Iran’s nuclear program is purely peaceful, as the country needs nuclear power for electricity generation and medicine.

The statement comes ahead of the first meeting between Iran’s newly elected President Hassan Rouhani and Russian President Vladimir Putin on September 13. The talks are part of a Eurasian summit taking place in Kyrgyzstan’s capital of Bishkek, a Russian presidential aide said Friday.

“After Rouhani’s election as president, the Iranian government sent us a proposal to hold a Rouhani-Putin meeting within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Bishkek,” Yury Ushakov said.

Last month, Russian business daily Kommersant cited anonymous sources which said that Vladimir Putin may visit Tehran to meet Hassan Rouhani in mid-August.

Rouhani was sworn in on August 4 and replaced Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as head of Iranian government.

During his first press conference on Tuesday, Rouhani said that Iran would continue negotiations with Russia on nuclear power development in the country.

“We need to get 20,000 megawatts of nuclear power. We have been negotiating on this. I hope that everything will develop according to schedule, and Iran will be able to continue to build nuclear power plants and continue to cooperate. The Iranian government will continue to negotiate with neighboring countries, one of which is Russia, to develop peaceful nuclear energy,” he said.

Russian parliament speaker Sergey Naryshkin said during his visit to Iran on August 4 that Russia intends to expand cooperation in civilian nuclear power after Iran’s nuclear power plant at Bushehr is fully commissioned in September.

The construction of Bushehr – the first civilian nuclear plant in the Middle East – was started in 1975 by German companies, but the work was stopped in 1979 after the Islamic revolution of Iran. A contract for finishing the plant was signed between Iran and the Russian Ministry for Atomic Energy in 1995.

Bushehr nuclear power plant launched in 2011 has no link to nuclear weapons production and cannot be used to develop such technology.

The US and its allies have long accused Iran of seeking to develop a nuclear weapons capability – a claim which Tehran has repeatedly denied.

Several rounds of talks between Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany have failed to resolve the dispute. Iran’s critics claim the country has used nuclear negotiations as a delaying tactic while continuing to develop nuclear weapons technology behind closed doors. Tehran insists its nuclear program is for entirely peaceful purposes.

Source: RT

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Top UK court overturns sanctions on Iranian bank

LONDON (AP) — Britain’s Supreme Court quashed sanctions against an Iranian bank penalized over its alleged links to Iran’s nuclear weapons program, saying Wednesday that Bank Mellat had been arbitrarily singled out.

Bank Mellat, a privately owned commercial bank, was seeking to overturn a 2009 order by the British Treasury barring it from operating in the country. That order, made under counterterrorism laws, shut the bank out of the British financial sector because it allegedly helped finance Tehran’s nuclear program.

The bank had denied the allegation and argued the order was unlawful, taking the case to the Supreme Court after failing to persuade Britain’s High Court and Court of Appeal to overturn the order.

Britain’s Supreme Court agreed, saying in a ruling Wednesday that the order was “arbitrary and irrational” and “disproportionate.”

The panel of justices also said in a separate but related judgment that it had been unnecessary for the court to hear some evidence in the case in secret.

The decision for Britain’s highest court to convene for the first time ever behind closed doors had sparked fierce criticism from anti-secrecy activists.

The justices said Wednesday there had been no point in hearing evidence in secret, because there was nothing said behind closed doors that would have impacted the court’s decision in the case.

Lawyer Sarosh Zaiwalla, who represented Bank Mellat, called the ruling a victory for his client and “for the rule of law.”

Associated Press

Copyright 2013 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Business Headlines

Top UK court overturns sanctions on Iranian bank

Iranian Election Reflects Desire For Change

Iran’s presidential election culminated in an explosion of public joy on Saturday in response to the official announcement that centrist cleric Hassan Rouhani had unexpectedly won a narrow plurality of the popular vote. The jubilation on the streets of Tehran and other major cities came after a short, tumultuous election and an excruciatingly slow ballot count. Both the process and the public reaction offered the absolute antithesis of the bitterly contested reelection of current president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad four years ago.

For Iran’s Islamic Republic, Rouhani’s victory represents a significant turning point, albeit one whose proportions and precise vector remain uncertain. For this moment at least, such details seemed irrelevant, as Iranians were determined to revel in a rare moment of unadulterated optimism, the fitting end to a long four years in which the themes of hope and prudence that Rouhani campaigned on were painfully absent. And the world cannot help but celebrate with them.

However, we should also stop to consider how it is that Iran has surprised us all again, as it has with rhythmic regularity over the course of recent years. Rouhani is in many ways an accidental instrument of change in Iran. His past political affiliations lie closer to Iran’s traditional conservatives rather than the leftists who spearheaded the reform movement 15 years ago. In part for this reason, his candidacy was the subject of much early skepticism among Iranians, and his clerical stature was considered a distinct liability in generating popular support for a system whose spiritual antecedents had waned or even turned against it.

His victory can only be seen as the product of simultaneous shifts within Iran: a concerted effort within the establishment to rebalance a system that was at risk of implosion as a result of external pressure and internal feuds, and a bottom-up determination to rally around any candidate who offered a path out of the profound hardship and isolation that has beset Iran as a result of sanctions and internal repression. In this sense, Rouhani was the beneficiary of the original reformist strategy that sought to use negotiations at the top and pressure from below to effect change.

For many observers and Iranians alike, Rouhani’s election called to mind the 1997 upset victory of reformist cleric Mohammad Khatami over a hand-picked conservative, Ali Akbar Nateq-Nouri. This time around, there is an important distinction, in that Rouhani’s campaign reflected much more of a cross-factional initiative of the Iranian political establishment. In fact, both Khatami and his 1997 opponent Nateq-Nouri supported Rouhani, an alliance that reflected an implicit recognition among many of the Islamic Republic’s power brokers that perpetuating the status quo was simply unsustainable.

The alliance between the centrists and the reform movement— which scholar Farideh Farhi pointed out last week— should have been a signal that something unusual was afoot in Iran. Rouhani could not have won without the mobilization of the reform movement’s potent political machinery on his behalf, rallying voters around the country and persuading (at some effort) the one real reformist candidate to withdraw in his favor. In this sense, Rouhani’s win reflects the maturation of the reform movement, which spent its heyday vilifying Iran’s centrists as epitomized by Rafsanjani. 

The establishment’s apprehensions were very much in sync with the sense of siege expressed by many ordinary Iranians. This propelled many to overcome their deep disaffection from the regime and residual bitterness over the brutal outcome to the 2009 vote to go to the polls on Friday. At least one candidate, nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, appeared to herald more of the same, and so the choice for some was not so much an embrace of Rouhani as it was a vociferous rejection of the country’s current predicament.

Rouhani’s victory also underscores the disarray among Iran’s conservatives, who despite intense and prolonged coordination efforts failed to coalesce around a single candidate. Although attention now is focused on the surprisingly decisive outcome— which contravened expectations that the large field would require a second round— the reality is that conservative candidates garnered the support of at least 40 percent of Iran’s voters on Friday. This should serve as a reminder that political sentiments within Iran are very much divided, in some respects more intensely than at the outset of the reformist period.

Of course the most stunning aspect of Friday’s election is simply that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the increasingly influential hard-liners who lead the security forces allowed it happen. As I wrote in my initial reaction to the election, there is much about Rouhani that offers welcome continuity for Khamenei and the rest of revolutionary leadership. Still, in acceding to his presidential prospects, they have elevated a man whose position on the nuclear issue they have publicly reviled for a decade, and they have revived a popular movement for political moderation that they have denounced as sedition.

The ultimate conclusion from Rouhani’s victory is that neither Khamenei nor Iran’s military commanders harbor any illusions about the depth of the existential crisis confronting the regime. Whether they can demonstrate similarly pragmatic flexibility in seeking to resolve the causes of that crisis— the standoff with the international community over the nuclear issue— remains the next great conundrum of Iran’s always unpredictable political narrative.

RealClearPolitics – Articles

Iranian Election Reflects Desire For Change

U.S. Helps Allies Trying to Battle Iranian Hackers

WASHINGTON — The Obama administration has begun helping Middle Eastern allies build up their defenses against Iran’s growing arsenal of cyberweapons, and will be doing the same in Asia to contain computer-network attacks from North Korea, according to senior American officials.

The American officials would not say which countries in the Persian Gulf have signed up for help in countering Iran’s computer abilities. But the list, some officials say, includes the nations that have been the most active in tracking Iranian arms shipments, intercepting them in ports and providing intelligence to the United States about Iranian actions. The three most active in that arena are Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.

In Asia, the countries most worried about being struck by North Korean computer attacks are South Korea and Japan.

The Defense Department’s assertive new effort in the gulf and Asia is the latest example of how the Obama administration is increasingly tailoring its national security efforts for a new era of digital conflict, in this case assuring the defense of computer networks and, if necessary, striking back against assaults.

A directive signed by the president that surfaced Friday — the third in a series of leaked documents published by the newspapers The Guardian and The Washington Post — underscored how the Obama administration is trying to prepare itself and its allies. The leaks also revealed how the Obama administration has put in place a large Internet surveillance operation to identify terrorism threats.

The presidential directive included the declaration that the United States reserved the right to take “anticipatory action” against “imminent threats,” a reference, it seemed, to the kind of crippling infrastructure attacks that Iran appears to be working on against American and allied targets. The new help for strengthening computer-network defenses for allies, which has not been publicly announced, closely parallels earlier efforts by the Obama administration in two volatile parts of the world. In recent years it has helped install advanced missile-defense systems and early-warning radars in Persian Gulf nations to counter Iran’s missile ability, and it has done something similar in Asia in response to North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.

But deterring cyberattacks is a far more complex problem, and American officials concede that this effort, which will include providing computer hardware and software and training to allies, is an experiment. It has been propelled by two high-profile attacks in the past year. One was against Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia’s largest, state-run oil producer, and according to American officials it was carried out by Iran. That attack crippled 30,000 computers but did not succeed in halting oil production. The other, an attack on South Korea’s banking and media companies this spring, was later attributed to North Korea. It froze the ability of several banks to operate for days.

“The Iranian attack on the Saudis was a real wake-up call in the region,” said one senior administration official, who would not speak on the record about the American efforts to counter Iran. “It made everyone realize that while the Iranians might think twice about launching a missile attack in the region, they see cyber as a potent way to lash out in response to sanctions.”

The administration is capitalizing on the fear created by those attacks to build on the de facto alliance against Iran that it has constructed in the region. The Pentagon is drawing up proposals for providing advanced hardware and software for computer-network defense that could be sold throughout the Persian Gulf, much as American aircraft and missiles are sold to Arab allies. Training programs are being put together to teach computer security to military and law enforcement in the region, and to collaborate with private companies.

And, just as the Pentagon conducts naval exercises in the Persian Gulf to practice ways of keeping the Strait of Hormuz open, officials say future joint war games would include simulated cyberattacks, similar to the one Iran conducted against Saudi Aramco.

The idea is to give American and allied forces practice carrying out their missions with their networks under duress, officials said.

The new interagency effort in Washington comes at a time when Israeli and American intelligence officials have been concerned by Iran’s swift advances in its computer weaponry, particularly its ability to disrupt existing infrastructure. As one former senior American military commander said recently, “They have startled everyone with the speed at which their capabilities have increased.”

But one continuing point of dispute is whether Iran and North Korea are working together on the development of cyberweapons, the way they have worked together for years on the development of missile technology.

A senior Israeli military official said Israel had evidence that Iran and North Korea were beginning to collaborate on developing cyberweapons. He declined to cite the specific evidence.

Although there is concern in Washington that cooperation between Iran and North Korea could spread to computer tools, American officials say there is no proof of such collaboration.

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U.S. Helps Allies Trying to Battle Iranian Hackers

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