Showing posts with label Midterm. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Midterm. Show all posts

Thursday, March 27, 2014

Who"s Buying Our Midterm Elections?

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Who"s Buying Our Midterm Elections?

Sunday, February 9, 2014

Nonbeliever PAC Gets Into the Midterm Game



Back in November, when podiatrist Lee Rogers was being interviewed as a potential endorsee by the Freethought Equality Fund PAC, the California congressional candidate was surprised by what he learned about the fledgling political action committee.


Rogers didn’t expect the organization, which was formed to promote the interests of the  non-believing electorate, to be focused on issues related to education and non-discrimination.


“They were not really concerned with things that you would typically think an atheist group being concerned with, like ‘In God We Trust’ on money.  I think one of them even said that they care more about what’s backing our money than what is on it,” Rogers said in an interview with RealClearPolitics. “They were really very pragmatic about the issues that they wanted to support in Washington.”


The Freethought PAC has filed its first wave of contributions through the Federal Election Commission. The total is paltry — just $ 6,100 — but the organization has, ahem, faith that it can one day make good on its website motto of  “electing secular leaders, defending secular America.”


What that motto means, in practical terms, is focusing on “any issues that come up where religious groups are trying to intrude their beliefs on policy,” the PAC’s coordinator, Bishop McNeill, told RCP. “Whether it be for women’s reproductive issues, same-sex marriage issues, issues dealing with scientific integrity.”


The beneficiaries of the PAC’s modest largess are all Democrats and all but one are incumbents: Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Reps. Jared Polis (Colo.), Rush Holt (N.J.), Bobby Scott (Va.) and Rogers.


“We do look at the demographics of the districts and a whole lot of criteria before making our decision,” McNeill said about the contributions — and the endorsements that accompany them.  “We’re not just trying to pick winners per se, but we do look at all the information given to us to make a solid decision and to find the most credible candidates.”


Warren is the Freethought PAC’s lone financial recipient holding office at a statewide level. She is also, among the federal candidates, the only one not facing an election this year. Warren has, however, been mentioned as a potential candidate for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. (The FEC filing states the Freethought disbursement of $ 1,000 to Warren is for the 2018 primary.)


Rogers, who is seeking the Democratic nomination in California’s 25th District,  told RCP that the PAC donated additional money to his campaign after the filing. That brings FEF’s contribution to $ 5,000, the maximum allowed by law.


He links the initial support he received from the PAC to its opposition to incumbent Howard P. “Buck” McKeon, whom Rogers was slated to challenge until the Republican congressman announced his retirement last month. Rogers said FEF took issue with McKeon — the powerful chairman of the House Armed Services Committee — for opposing efforts to allow humanist chaplains to counsel military members who are atheists.


Among the other FEF endorsees, Rep. Scott (now serving his 11th term in Congress) said in an email that as “a strong supporter of the Free Exercise and Establishment Clauses enshrined in the First Amendment, I was honored to be among the first members of Congress endorsed by the new Freethought and Equality Fund.”
The other recipients of  FEF contributions did not immediately respond to RCP’s requests for comment.


The PAC debuted last September as the brainchild of the Center for Humanist Activism, the lobbying arm of the American Humanist Association. According to its website, the latter was founded in 1941 and now has over 20,000 members and supporters.


Of the PAC’s current stable of endorsees, a group that extends beyond the donation recipients cited above, the sole openly professed nonbeliever is Arizona state Rep. Juan Mendez, who identifies as a secular humanist. (He revealed his principles on the issue in the Arizona House of Representatives, where he asked fellow lawmakers not to bow their heads — and invoked Carl Sagan — as he led the daily invocation.)


“I hope today marks the beginning of a new era in which Arizona’s nonbelievers can feel as welcome and valued here as believers,” Mendez reportedly said afterward.


Some faith advocates are skeptical of the success the political action committee will have in the long run.


“I think that they will be a drop in the bucket along with many other liberal-left PACs,” Faith and Freedom Coalition senior adviser Gary Marx told RCP. “It’s going to take a whole lot of finances for them to break through and move into the conversation with the likes of Moveon.org and the trial lawyers and the unions.”


But the recent financial contributions are only a part of what Freethought hopes to do this election year.


McNeill said there are currently 12 candidates for Congress who have identified themselves as nonbelievers, answered questionnaires from the PAC and talked with the organization.  (He declined to name them — an announcement will be forthcoming — but did divulge that all are seeking the Democratic nomination in their districts.) Freethought will “endorse and or highlight these candidates and commend them for their courage to be out and open about their lack of belief,” McNeill said.


He added that the next goal of the operation is to have more politicians publicly disclose their nonbelief.


“If we can get them to come out as a group, I think that would be the best course of action,” McNeill said. “Obviously, I think individually it’s going to be harder because it’ll still be easy for people to single out one individual.”
Explaining FEF’s emphasis on electing nonbelievers to office, he cited an oft-repeated statistic that 20 percent of Americans do not identify with any religion.


“Unfortunately, that number is not represented in Congress,” McNeill said. “It is important to have diversity in office.”


According to Lauren Youngblood, spokesperson for the pro-separation of church and state Secular Coalition of America, there are 31 current members of Congress who have privately confided their nonbelief to the organization.


That there are nonbelievers who keep those sentiments to themselves isn’t surprising. After all, the U.S. remains a religious country overall: Gallup reports that 87 percent of Americans believe in a deity. Add in the coming midterms, and the issue isn’t likely to be one that many officeholders (or wannabes) would want to make an issue of.


“I like to say it must be an election year because politicians are attending church,” Ethics and Public Policy Center Vice President Michael Cromartie told RCP. “The American people can discern whether or not a candidate is sincere about their faith.”


Youngblood argued that a candidate’s nonbelief should be a “non-issue.”


“It really shouldn’t matter whether you’re a Christian or an atheist or a Buddhist,” she asserted. “What should matter is that you base your laws, your legislation or your support for legislation on reason and science and logic.”


Rogers agrees.


Pointing to his belief in the First Amendment and “the principle of separation between church and state,” the California candidate said he does not publicly reveal his religious affiliation. If elected to Congress, he said he would continue non-identification.


“I think that too many people are using their religion to force their beliefs on others,” Rogers said. “I’ve told people I’m not going to use any of my own personal religious beliefs to try to force policy on anyone else.”




RealClearPolitics – Articles



Nonbeliever PAC Gets Into the Midterm Game

Monday, February 3, 2014

Obama, Top Dems Discuss Midterm Landscape

Obama, Top Dems Discuss Midterm Landscape
http://images.rcp.realclearpolitics.com/226169_5_.jpg



President Obama met Monday with Majority Leader Harry Reid and leaders of the Senate Democrats’ campaign arm at the White House to discuss the midterm elections, which could determine control of the upper chamber in the next Congress.


Reid was joined by Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Michael Bennet of Colorado, and Executive Director Guy Cecil for over an hour to talk about the 2014 landscape.


Democrats are defending 21 seats this cycle, including a handful in red states where the outcomes could shift the balance of power to the GOP. Republicans need to gain six seats to take control of the chamber, which, though a tough task, would be a major blow to the president’s already rocky second term. Republicans are hoping to capitalize on the Obama’s low approval ratings along with some vulnerable Democrats’ efforts to distance themselves from him.


The meeting came as the president prepares to sit down with Senate Democrats at the White House on Tuesday for a reception. He will address House Democrats at their annual retreat in Maryland later this week.


Reid and Obama, however, did not discuss the president’s interest in fast-tracking two major trade agreements through Congress without changes or amendments. Republicans support the deals but the majority leader and many Democrats oppose them, arguing that such pacts could result in lost U.S. jobs.


Resistance from the Senate’s top Democrat endangers the agreements with the European Union and Asia-Pacific countries. And it puts some Democrats in a difficult spot given the stakes in this election year. Last week, Reid said pushing the issue now would not be wise. 




Caitlin Huey-Burns is a congressional reporter for RealClearPolitics. She can be reached at chueyburns@realclearpolitics.com. Follow her on Twitter @CHueyBurnsRCP.




RealClearPolitics – Articles




Read more about Obama, Top Dems Discuss Midterm Landscape and other interesting subjects concerning Politics at TheDailyNewsReport.com

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

2014 Midterm Elections Predictions Prove Pundits Don"t Know Math


Editor’s note: This is a two part series that will explore Republican prospects in the 2014 midterm elections. Part 1 is the House elections.


We’re just over a year away from the 2014 midterm elections, and liberal pundits are feeling giddy. They point to polls like a recent one from CNN where 75% of respondents “say most Republicans in Congress don’t deserve re-election” and believe the “unpopularity of the shutdown” will doom GOP chances of retaining their House majority or taking the Senate.


But chances are, this is nothing but more overhype from talking heads in the media, and the GOP will in all likelihood retain their House majority next year.


For starters, CNN uses the poll’s most sensational finding as the headline to grab the attention of drive-by news readers. But if anyone bothers to check out the poll’s complete findings, they’ll find out there’s more to it than meets the headline eye. For instance, more than seven in 10 questioned in the survey said that most members of Congress don’t deserve to be re-elected, while less than four in 10 said their own representative doesn’t deserve to return to Washington next year – reinforcing the well-known belief that individual voters hold their own representative in a more positive light than Congress overall. A majority of respondents (54%) also said most Democrats don’t deserve to return to Congress either, highlighting the public’s frustration with political brinkmanship from both parties. The poll also failed to ask if respondents who believed the GOP don’t deserve to return based their answer on Republicans’ vote to end the shutdown rather than continue it.


Regardless, most of this is short term emotional opinion that will be ancient history come next year. On top of that, the math simply isn’t there for Democrats to retake the House, and here’s why: according to the Washington Post’s Wonkblog, during the last government shutdowns of 1995 and 1996, 35% of House Republicans were in districts that had voted for Bill Clinton in the 1992 election. This time around, only 7% of House Republicans are in districts that voted for Obama in 2012.


In the 1996 election immediately after the last government shutdown, Republicans only lost three seats in the House and gained two seats in the Senate – and that was with 35% of House Republicans in Clinton districts.


But you don’t have to take my word for it. Even statistics god Nate Silver of the infamous FiveThirtyEight blog agrees, writing, “Remember Syria? The fiscal cliff? Benghazi? The IRS scandal? The collapse of immigration reform? All of these were hyped as game-changing political moments by the news media, just as so many stories were during the election last year. In each case, the public’s interest quickly waned once the news cycle turned over to another story. Most political stories have a fairly short half-life and won’t turn out to be as consequential as they seem at the time.”


“The impact of the 1995-96 shutdowns is overrated in Washington’s mythology,” according to Silver.


Silver explains the main obstacle Democrats face in their electoral prospects to take the House back, “First, there are extremely few swing districts — only one-half to one-third as many as when the last government shutdown occurred in 1996. Some of this is because of partisan gerrymandering, but more of it is because of increasingly sharp ideological divides along geographic lines: between urban and rural areas, between the North and the South, and between the coasts and the interior of the United States.


“So even if Democrats make significant gains in the number of votes they receive for the House, they would flip relatively few seats because of the way those votes are distributed. Most of the additional votes would come in districts that Democrats were already assured of winning, or where they were too far behind to catch up.


“Consider that, between 2010 and 2012, Democrats went from losing the average congressional district by seven percentage points to winning it by one percentage point — an eight-point swing. And yet they added only eight seats in the House, out of 435 congressional districts.”


While partisan liberal pundits will be quick to sound the alarm on Republican gerrymandered districts, they should keep in mind that Democrats have done the same thing in states like Illinois, Maryland, and California as well (something the broadcast news stations also fail to report).


Silver goes on to conclude that, “In 2014, likewise, it will require not just a pretty good year for Democrats, but a wave election for them to regain the House. But wave elections in favor of the party that controls the White House are essentially unprecedented in midterm years. Instead, the president’s party has almost always lost seats in the House — or at best gained a handful.”


But this also highlights the obstacles Republicans have when it comes to upcoming Senate and presidential elections. As I’ve explained countless times since the 2012 election, Democrats have spent the last eight years combing through the blue districts of all the swing states and aggressively registering more voters in their books (then getting them to the polls as quickly and conveniently as possible starting on day one of early voting). This doesn’t help them in House elections where Democrat voters are numerically stacked up in the same districts that they’re already winning, but it does give them the popular vote advantage in each state.


Not only does that pose a big problem for the GOP’s Senate prospects in blue and swing states, but it also hurts their chances of winning another presidential election which is essentially determined by 50 separate statewide elections. With the exceptions of Maine and Nebraska, the Electoral College votes of each state are a winner-take-all jackpot for whoever finishes first in each state’s popular vote. If every state would proportionately award the Electoral College votes based on the popular vote the way Maine and Nebraska do, Mitt Romney would’ve won the 2012 election by 11 Electoral College votes.


That’s why Republicans need to catch up with Democratic efforts in swing states by aggressively combing through all the red districts and getting out the vote. Until the GOP organizations in every state start playing the same games as Democrats, their statewide and nationwide electoral prospects won’t change anytime soon.



I should also mention that while history is on the GOP’s side to retain their largest House majority since 1947, that’s not something they can bank on anymore, either. Historically, whichever presidential candidate has won the most whites, independents, and middle class voters also wins the election. The 2012 election was the first to break that trend (most whites, independents, and middle class voters broke for Romney). I’ve concluded that is due in large part to the growing numbers of non-white voters. Whites broke for Romney 60% to 40%, the largest margin for a Republican candidate since 1988. If this were still the electorate of 20 years ago, where whites made up 87% of voters, Romney would’ve won 54% to 45%. But the non-white vote has more than doubled since then from 13% to 28% of the overall vote, and of that 28%, Romney got less than 5%.


But midterm election turnout has hovered around 40% for the last 40 years, far below the 60% average voter turnout of the last three presidential elections.



So unless that changes this time around, the House should stay within the control of the GOP through 2014.



John Giokaris
John Giokaris

John Giokaris has been contributing to PolicyMic since February 2011. Born and raised in Chicago, John graduated from Loyola University Chicago with a double major in Journalism and Political Science and is currently working on his law degree at The John Marshall Law School. John believes in free market principles, private sector solutions, transparency, school choice, constitutionally limited government, and being a good steward of taxpayer dollars. His goals are to empower/create opportunity for citizens to use the tools at their disposal to succeed in America, which does more to grow the middle class and alleviate those in poverty than keeping a permanent underclass dependent on government sustenance indefinitely. Sitting on the Board of Directors for both the center-right Chicago Young Republicans and libertarian America’s Future Foundation-Chicago, he is also a member of the free market think tank Illinois Policy Institute’s Leadership Coalition team along with other leaders of the Illinois business, political and media communities. John has seven years experience working in writing/publishing, having previously worked at Law Bulletin Publishing, the Tribune Company and Reboot Illinois. His works have been published in the Chicago Tribune, Townhall, Reboot Illinois, Crain’s Chicago Business, the Law Bulletin and the RedEye.





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2014 Midterm Elections Predictions Prove Pundits Don"t Know Math