Showing posts with label Millennials. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Millennials. Show all posts

Friday, March 28, 2014

How Deficit Hawks Are Trying to Pit Millennials Against Seniors to Attack Social Security and Medicare



A Tea Party congressman calls out greedy Wall Streeters for the ruse.








Generational grievances pitting struggling young millennials against supposedly better-off seniors is creeping back into American politics, fanned by a new wave of deficit hawks who want to undermine public confidence in Social Security and Medicare—as the first step in cutting the social insurance programs.


A string of recent examples—rants from MSNBC’s wealthy young commentator, a notorious elderly-attacking House candidate, think tanks promoted on NPR—generational warfare cheerleaders are proclaiming that America is heading toward an epic and immoral conflict as better-off seniors are robbing millennials of shrinking federal dollars because retirement programs cost too much. That’s simply false, as Social Security is solvent through 2033, and spending as a percentage of GDP is close to where it’s been since 1975, at 21 percent. 


This line of attack isn’t in a political vacuum. It comes as some Democrats are reframing the debate on Social Security and campaigning for increased benefits. Nor is it a new argument, as a right-wing club of libertarians, Wall Street bankers and deficit hawks have tried for decades to undermine and privatize the program. Amazingly, the generational warmongers are not just irking progressives who see shifting political winds; they"re scaring at least one Republican congressman who called out the generational warfare ruse and game plan in fundraising letter.        


Pennsylvania Republican Tom Marino is a former U.S. Attorney and conservative two-term incumbent. His re-election website boasts he is anti-Obamacare, pro-gun, pro-fracking and anti-gay marriage. Yet, the top news item on his website is a letter from Vivian Mae Marino, “to let all of you know that my son, Tom Marino, will save Medicare and strengthen Social Security.”


Why is a 62-year-old Tea Partier calling on mom? Because a generational antagonist bent on sounding “the alarm of gerontocracy, or rule by the elderly,” may run against Marino as an independent in 2014. That self-proclaimed Paul Revere for millennials is Nick Troiano, 24, who co-founded a group supposedly representing young Americans who are losing sleep because they feel Congress is stealing their future by spending on seniors. Never mind that his deficit hawk group spectacularly imploded last month, after e-mails revealed that it couldn’t balance its budget, and had burned through funds from Wall Street billionaire Pete Peterson, the leading Social Security privateer.


“As a college student in Washington, D.C., this individual [Troiano] founded a group called The Can Kicks Back,” Marino’s appeal said. “The Can Kicks Back claimed to be concerned about our nation’s debt and deficit. In reality, it is just another front group funded by Wall Street billionaire Pete Peterson.” Marino’s letter did what Republicans almost never do—unmask other Republicans’ real agenda. “Why are Pete Peterson and Kick The Can Back so dangerous?” he wrote. “Their goal is to increase tax loopholes for the largest corporations in the country and they plan to pay for this corporate giveaway to the Fortune 500 by cutting Social Security benefits for older Americans.”


Marino didn’t stop there. “One commentator recently suggested that The Can Kicks Back’s strategy was, ‘to attempt the enlistment of millennial (young Americans age 18 to 25) in the effort to impoverish their grandparents,” he said. “Within just a day of his announcement, this individual considering running against me claimed that he had already raised $ 10,000. How much of that do you think was from Peterson and other Wall Street fat cats who want to get their hands on your Social Security benefits.”


This spat captures the contours of an old and still looming political fight where centrist Democrats and most Republicans refuse to fortify America’s most popular and widely used social insurance programs by a mix of simple tax increases and more realistic cost-of-living increases. More than 80 percent of Social Security benefits go to people with incomes of less than $ 30,000—and most average less than $ 12,000 a year. Yet faces are appearing on America’s airwaves posing a false analysis and choice: that federal finances are a mess; and that the only fix is depriving seniors of earned social insurance benefits so those funds could be diverted to struggling youths. 


Abby Huntsman, the poised 27-year-old daughter of multi-millionaire 2012 GOP presidential candidate, Jon Huntsman, and a co-host of MSNBC’s millennial-targeted show, “The Cycle,” is a prime example. Two weeks ago, she went into an on-air tizzy about how Social Security would disappear for her peers if older Americans kept getting all the benefits. “At the rate we are spending, the system will be bankrupt by the time you and I are actually eligible to get these benefits,” she declared, citing new Pew Research Center research. “Would you rather have 80 percent of what you have today, or nothing at all?” 


Baby boomers will have to forgive Huntsman for plagiarizing the Beatles—she calls her TV commentary Abby’s Road. But they shouldn’t let her off the hook for wild inaccuracies, Los Angeles Times business columnist Michael Hiltzik noted. Telling her peers that they will get zero when the retire, which is incorrect, so that they will accept a budget deal that would instead lower their eventual retirement benefits, is not looking out for her generation.


On Thursday, Huntsman hit back at Hiltzik, flashing his column on the air, and declaring, “entitlement reform is the most pressing long-term budget decision we have to make as a country. Come on, man! It isn’t about me. It’s about the major problem.” Her solution, needless to say, was cutting Social Security, screening incomes of Medicare recipients, and postponing the onset of that program from age 65 to 67.


The problem is that Huntsman doesn’t understand the real problem—and refuses to consider other options besides spending cuts, as Hiltzik said in a Friday piece. “That’s where she really goes off the rails,” he said, citing her remarks no one is discussing serious options. “We have been debating those options, for years.”


Huntsman is not alone in resurrecting a generational warfare meme. Comedian Bill Maher recited the same incorrect clichés in jokes on his TV show. But more serious is the Pew Research Center report—and a new related book—cited by Huntsman, from ex-Washington Post reporter turned Pew research czar Paul Taylor.


Taylor’s book, The Next America: Boomers, Millennial and The Looming Generational Showdown, is a full-throttled Pew production. It’s packed with facts, figures, graphs, and dire-sounding analysis to support a particular conclusion, which Taylor told NPR. Speaking of Social Security and Medicare, he said, “Everybody who looks at the demographics knows that those systems are going broke within 15 or 20 years and the longer you wait, the more the burden of the solution is going to fall on millennials.”


It’s worth noting that this is the same line that U.S. News and World Report, the pro-business weekly magazine, took in its November 5, 1984 editorial, after President Ronald Reagan, the conservative Republican, and Democratic House Speaker Tip O’ Neill, put together a bill modifying but not privatizing Social Security—as right-wingers had hoped. The magazine called it “nothing less than a massive transfer of wealth from the young, many of them struggling, to the elderly, many of them living comfortably.”


Fast-forward 30 years and Paul Taylor is making the same case on NPR—as an information broker to its educated, influential audience. “I leave this book thinking we have very serious demographically driven challenges,” he said on March 4. “We’ve got to rebalance the social safety net so it’s fair to all generations.” 


Pew isn’t the disinterested wise observer that’s NPR presents. It and the right-wing Laura and John Arnold Foundation have lead a tag team effort to cut back government employee pensions. They recite austerity frames—talking about slashing spending and avoiding other options where wealthy interests would pay more. Taylor is a bit too black and white when he says “everyone” in Washington knows that a retirement safety net crisis will explode in 15 or 20 years. That’s not how liberal economists see it.


“It is striking that NPR is willing to focus so much more attention on the threat to the living standards of millennials presented by a 2-3 percentage point increase in payroll taxes,” blogged Dean Baker, at Washington’s Center for Economic and Policy Research after Taylor’s appearance. That focus ignores the “policies that could lead to much or all of the benefits of productivity growth over the next three decades going to those at the top, as has been the case for the last three decades,” he said, referring to America’s wage and income stagnation.  


When you peel back the details, what’s going on here is simple and not new. Right-wingers—starting at the libertarian Cato Institute which doesn’t want federal social insurance programs to work, going next to Wall Street firms that see a gold mine from privatizing Social Security, and continuing to today’s spokespeople for these interests—want to undermine public confidence in government and push for-profit substitutes. They know that seniors and near-retirees won’t buy into any of this, which is why they have tried for decades—as Republican Congressman Marino’s fundraising letter noted—to create generational grievances pitting America’s young against its elderly.


“I’m not quite a believer in cabals, but that’s sort of what happened,” said Eric Kingson, Syracuse University Professor of Social Work and co-director of Social Security Works, the national advocacy organization. “It [generational warfare] doesn’t take off when people see their parents and their grandparents struggling on fairly minimal income.”


Right Wing History Repeats Itself


Experts who have studied America’s social insurance programs for decades know that cutting Social Security would cause more poor seniors in the future—including today’s millennials. That is because smaller baseline benefits would yield smaller future monthly checks, even after cost-of-living increases. How do they know that? Because in the early 1980s, when Social Security faced a funding shortfall in a bad economy, Congress’s fix ended up shrinking payments to today’s retirees by more than 20 percent, compared to what they would have been if left alone. Three factors did that: increasing income taxes on Social Security benefits, delaying annual cost of living increases every year by six months, and eventually raised the retirement age from 65 to 67.


The losers in that political fight—lead by the Cato Institute and anti-tax Wall Streeters—have been fighting to privatize Social Security ever since. Their best strategy, as laid out in the fall 1983 Cato Journal, was seen as fomenting a generational divide fighting for a shrinking slice of the federal pie. At the same time, they also began to push businesses to replace employee pensions with individual retirement accounts, which, as AlterNet’s Lynn Stuart Parramore has described in detail, have produced far less for retirees.


“We must prepare the political ground so that the fiasco of the last 18 months is not repeated,” Cato Journal’s influential 1983 article, “Achieving A “Leninist” Strategy,” began. “We must begin to divide this [pro-Social Security] coalition and cast doubt on the picture of reality it presents to the general public.” Cato knew who it wanted on its team. It “should consist not only of those who will reap benefits from the IRA-based private system [that a lawyer and columnist Peter J.] Ferrara has proposed, but also the banks, insurance companies, and other institutions that will gain from providing such plans to the public.” 


And Cato knew its target. “The young are the most obvious constituency for reform and a natural ally for the private alternative,” it said. “The overwhelming majority of people in this group have stated repeatedly that they have little or no confidence in the present Social Security system.” Youthful indignation and grievance could be powerful, Cato said, fantasizing about its coming revolution. “Younger workers… would see just how much of a loss they are taking by participating in the program… assuming, for the sake of argument, that they would ever have received those benefits.” 


Needless to say, Social Security has not collapsed as Cato forecast—even though today’s generational warfare arguments are basically repeating 30-year-old rhetoric. The program is solvent under promised benefits through 2033—a half-century after Congress reformed it. Social Security advocates say such longevity is a sign of its great success. But, as was the case in 1983, federal law requires Social Security to pay out only what it takes in. The next funding shortfall is predicted to come in 2033, when benefits would be cut by about 20 percent to Baby Boomers and GenXers if no revenue changes were made. But modest increases in payroll taxes—fifty cents a week for most workers, and raising the cap on how much of one’s annual income is subject to Social Security taxes (the first $ 117,000) would more than offset 2033’s predicted shortfall.


Those simple options, needless to say, are almost never discussed by Cato’s narrative or by its more modern descendents. Cato’s generational warfare script had another dark thread that was developed in a second article the same issue of the Cato Journal, where it suggested that elderly people were more likely to be greedy when the government was signing the check, which amounted to taking money from younger people’s pockets. That feeds rightwing scripts that seniors are immorally stealing federal funds from the young. 


“If transfers to aged parents were purely a family decision, I doubt those among today’s elderly who have accumulated significant wealth would be willing to ask their children for a significant portion of their income,” Marilyn Flowers wrote. “Yet these same individuals seemingly have no qualms about using their political clout to demand through Social Security what is, in an objective sense, the same thing.”   


Back To Reality


There have been many fact-filled rebuttals to these frames—that seniors are taking too large a slice of America’s limited public resources—even as this pro-austerity script has evolved under the more recent deficit hawk banner. It’s key to note what these right-wingers aren’t calling for. They don’t want to cut corporate subsidies or defense spending, nor do they want to pay more in taxes—such as taxing investment income. They’ll cite big numbers on how much is spent on safety nets to scare people, but they don’t mention the even bigger sums spent on corporate welfare. That’s was the striking takeaway from David Sirota’s investigate report on the joint Arnold Foundation and Pew attack on pensions for The Institute for America’s Future and PandoDaily, which prompted WNET, New York City’s largest public television station, to return Arnold’s $ 3.5 million grant and cancel a “Pension Peril” series.   


Social Security defenders like Kingson know that the right’s arguments are simplistic while real life is more complicated. It’s almost impossible to quantify how much money flows from one generation to the next over a lifetime—such as parents raising children and paying for college, helping with a first home down payment or bailing out a child’s bad business decision; to elderly people on the other end not being paid at all for their care giving as their life partners age in their own homes. This reality points to Kingson’s biggest disappointment with today’s political leaders—they aren’t noting how American of all ages are facing intertwined economic struggles.


“Obama’s failure is not building on his promise of we’re in all in this together,” Kingson said. “The concept of all of us being connected and being together leads to policies of compassion, citizenry, decency, dignity. It leads to form social structures that support human beings throughout life. And we as a country aren’t seeing ourselves as being in it together, and nobody is speaking out for that with moral force today.”


“Instead, there’s moral force that’s being exerted from the right in a negative way,” he continued. “They have a narrative that government is falling apart, too much money is being spent, you’re being screwed—and we thought that Obama was going to do this—counter that.”    


But a funny thing is happening as today’s generational warmongers—MSNBC’s Abby Huntsmen, prospective GOP House candidate Nick Troiano, Pew research czar Paul Taylor—are that saying generational conflict is America’s fate.


“What’s so fascinating is there isn’t any tension at the moment,” Taylor told NPR. “You have a generation coming in that isn’t wagging its finger with blame at mom or grandma. In fact, they’re living with mom and grandma… and maybe that’s the best basis upon which to go forward and rebalance our books on Social Security and Medicare.”


In other words, there’s no real generational warfare. There are just new faces touting an old line, which is an opportunistic political attack for sponsors to line their pockets or hobble effective government programs—which is exactly what Republican Rep. Tom Marino wrote in his edgy March 10 fundraising appeal unmasking this rhetorical red herring.


“You will not believe the length to which this community organizer and his Wall Street friends will go to buy a seat in Congress,” Marino’s letter began. It ended, “We’ll let the billionaires know that we mean business when we tell them to keep their hands off the Social Security benefits we have earned.”


 

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How Deficit Hawks Are Trying to Pit Millennials Against Seniors to Attack Social Security and Medicare

How Deficit Hawks Are Trying to Pit Millennials Against Seniors to Attack Social Security and Medicare

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How Deficit Hawks Are Trying to Pit Millennials Against Seniors to Attack Social Security and Medicare

Monday, March 17, 2014

What we can learn from the millennials who are opting out of driving

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What we can learn from the millennials who are opting out of driving

Monday, January 27, 2014

Poll: Just 1 in 5 Millennials likely to sign up for Obamacare



Millennials


Less than one in five young Americans are likely to enroll in the Obamacare healthcare exchanges this year, according a new study commissioned by Young America’s Foundation.


The study, which was released Monday, found that just 18 percent of adults ages 18-to-24 plan on enrolling in the exchanges, with another 46 percent reporting that they are not likely to enroll at all. That includes nearly half of all self-identified Independents, as well as those from the Southern and Midwestern regions of the United States.


These numbers are troublesome for the president, as the success of the healthcare exchanges depends largely on having a large number of young Americans enroll in the exchanges. According to YAF, the president needs 40 percent of young, uninsured Americans to enroll in the exchanges to keep the program solvent. Early enrollment numbers found that a higher-than-expected number of older, sickly Americans were enrolling in the program – an issue that also threatens the exchanges’ financial stability over the next few years.


A large factor in why the early enrollment numbers among young Americans was low is the disastrous rollout of Healthcare.gov, the website created specifically for Americans to enroll in the exchanges. Yet numbers released last week still found that young adults were signing up at lower-than-expected rates.


Millennials have also been opting out of Obamacare because of the high costs for the premiums – even under the cheapest plan possible. A recent study conducted by the American Action Forum found that six in seven Millennials would be better off paying the penalty for foregoing health insurance in 2014 – a penalty of $ 95 or 1 percent of the person’s income, whichever is greater – than opting into the program.


The study also found that one in three young Americans believe they will be “worse off” under the Affordable Care Act than before – a significant number considering the new law allows adults under the age of 26 to stay on their parents’ healthcare plans, thus eliminating the need for them to enroll in the exchanges.


“The administration believes that because young people were some of Obama’s most enthusiastic supporters that they will just buy anything that they sell. But young people are smarter than that,” YAF spokeswoman Ashley Pratte told Red Alert Politics. ”A lot of young people are feeling ‘buyer’s remorse’ currently. They were told they would get free healthcare when in fact it was never communicated that they would be the ones picking up the tab and subsidizing healthcare for the older and sicker generation.”


the polling company, inc./WomenTrend conducted a nationwide online survey of 1,000 adults between the ages of 18 and 24 on behalf of Young America’s Foundation from December 27, 2013 to January 6, 2014. The margin of error for the study is +/- 3.1 percent at a 95 percent confidence level. 




Red Alert Politics



Poll: Just 1 in 5 Millennials likely to sign up for Obamacare

Monday, August 26, 2013

The Outsiders: How Can Millennials Change Washington If They Hate It?



Students at Langley High School in Langley, Virginia (All photos Richard A. Bloom)

Forget what you’ve read about the “Me, Me, Me Generation.” Here are four things you probably don’t know about the 95 million Americans born between 1982 and 2003:


  1. Millennials, in general, are fiercely committed to community service.

  2. They don’t see politics or government as a way to improve their communities, their country, or the world.

  3. So the best and brightest are rejecting public service as a career path. Just as Baby Boomers are retiring from government and politics, Washington faces a rising-generation “brain drain.”

  4. The only way Milliennials might engage Washington is if they first radically change it.

The first three conclusions are rooted in hard data I’ll share below. For a least a decade, experts have struggled to understand why civic-minded Millennials are rejecting public service and politics. Beyond the why, I wanted to understand what it means: What happens to U.S. politics over the next two or three decades if the best and bright of the next generation abandon Washington? So I talked to them – at elite public high schools in suburban Washington and Boston, at Harvard University’s Kennedy School for Government, and on Capitol Hill. In all, I conducted more than 80 interviews with Millennials as well as pollsters, demographers, and generational experts. They brought me to my fourth conclusion: What Millennials have in store for the political system is revolutionary. Maybe worse.


“They’ve been told all their lives to wait in line,” former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele says. “But they’re of a mind to say, ‘OK, while I’m waiting in line I’ll blow your stuff up.”


You’ve heard the knocks against Millennials. They’re narcissistic, coddled, and lazy, not to mention spoiled. But there’s more to their story. The largest and most diverse generation in U.S. history is goal-orientated, respects authority and follows rules. Millennials are less ideological than their Baby Boom parents (more on that later) and far more tolerant. In addition to famously supporting gay rights, polls show they are less prone to cast negative moral judgments on interracial marriages, single women raising children, unmarried couples living together and mothers of young children working outside the home. While their parents and grandparents preferred to work alone, young Americans are team-oriented and seek collaboration. Wired to the world, they are more likely than past generations to see the globe’s problems as their own. Millennials are eager to serve the greater community through technologies, paradoxically, that empower the individual.


Speaking of technology, Millennials witnessed, embraced, and in some cases instigated massive disruptions of the music, television, movie, media, and retail industries.  The most supervised and entitled generation in human history, they have no patience for inefficiency, stodgy institutions or the status quo. Consider what they could do to politics and government.


***

The good news is they want to serve.


“The Millennials have arrived, and they could rescue the civic health of our nation after decades of decline,” says John Bridgeland, CEO of Civic Enterprises, a national-service think tank. One of the nation’s foremost authorities on civic engagement, Bridgeland believes Millennials will be the next Greatest Generation, because, like the generation anointed by Tom Brokaw, they are products of an era of economic crisis and war, and are committed to community service.


The path to service usually goes like this: A Millennial’s parents fret that their precocious daughter can’t compete in a global economy without admission to a prestigious university. Volunteerism looks good on college applications, so twice a week they drive her to the local food pantry, where, starting in elementary school, she stocks shelves. When she gets to high school, community service is a requirement, because the superintendent’s appraisals are tied to college-admission rates.


Over time, a funny thing happens: The child actually likes community service. Data shows Millennials continue to volunteer into adulthood. Their reasons range from the practical (“It’s a great way to catch up with friends and help people,” a Concord, Massachusetts, high-school student told me) to the spiritual (“It just makes me feel better about myself,” said a 23-year-old politico at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.).


The National Conference on Citizenship reported in 2009 that Millennials “lead the way in volunteering” with a 43 percent service rate, compared to only 35 percent for Baby Boomers. According to research conducted for Harvard’s Institute of Politics, more than one-third of Americans ages 18-29 report that they volunteered for community service in the last year. Among college students, the volunteerism rate is a remarkable 53 percent, of which 41 percent say they serve at least a few times a month. The IOP has found similar levels of service since the project began in 2000.


Millennials also have an outsized sense of purpose. “Young Americans are more concerned with the importance of their work than the salary attached to it,” according to a study by the Government Business Council, the research arm of The Atlantic’s sister publication Government Executive. “In the 2011 National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE) Student Survey, college students revealed that the ability to improve the community ranks almost as highly as a strong starting salary when searching for their first job.”


***


But how do they hope to serve? Matt Kissling teaches government at Langley High School, an elite public school in suburban Washington that caters to the sons and daughters of U.S. congressmen, ambassadors, and Cabinet members. If his students aren’t the best and brightest, they’re close enough. So I asked them: “How many of you volunteer in your community?”


Every student raised a hand.


“I teach autistic kids to ride horses,” Morgan Wallace said.


“Me, too,” said Ashley Morabito. They’re all chirping now:


“I work at a food pantry.”


“ … at my church.”


“Tutor reading …”


“… and teach English.”


 “But how many of you think traditional public service is the best way to help your community and country?” I asked. “In other words, how many of you will make a career in politics or government?”


Not a hand went up. No chirping. Nothing — the only noise in the abruptly silent room was the electronic hum of a fluorescent light. Finally, Shayan Ghahramani, a student, whispered, “Is this a joke?”


It wasn’t.  But it was telling. The Harvard IOP study, “Survey of Young Americans’ Attitudes Toward Politics and Public Service,” published on April 30, suggests  Millennials are increasingly negative and cynical about the political process.


  • Nearly three in five young Americans agree that elected officials seem motivated by “selfish reasons,” an increase of 5 points since 2010.

  • Fifty-six percent agree that “elected officials don’t have the same priorities that I have,” a 5-point increase.

  • Nearly half agree that “politics has become too partisan,” up 2 points.

  • Nearly one-third agree that “political involvement rarely has any tangible results,” up 5 points.

More to the point, 47 percent of young Americans agree that “politics today are no longer able to meet the challenges out country is facing.” Only 16 percent disagree.


How deep is the disengagement? I spent two days at Harvard, and couldn’t find a single student whose career goal is Washington or elective office. One wouldn’t expect to hear this at the Kennedy School of Government. “Government and politics,” said graduate student Sara Estill, “holds little or no attraction for us.”


John Della Volpe, director of polling at Harvard’s IOP, said there was a moment between the reelection campaigns of George W. Bush and Barack Obama when the case could have been made to Millennials that government is transcendent. “But instead, they came of age in a period of polarization and gridlock,” said Della Volpe, who is otherwise sympathetic to Obama. “The president they supported could not overcome it.”


Kennedy School grad student Chike Aguh told me: “Politics just doesn’t seem relative to a lot of us and our world. Since the Great Society, tell me one big thing that has come out of Washington. Results are important to us, and sadly, politics isn’t a place for results.”


***

After World War II, millions of the young Americans who would be known as the Greatest Generation found work in swelling government bureaucracies. Many entered elective office. Millennials, however, are much less likely to exercise their sense of civic purpose through public service, and that’s bad news for good governance.


As Baby Boomers approach retirement, the federal government will need to hire more than 200,000 highly skilled workers for a range of critical jobs. A successful transition depends on the interest of the 95 million Millennials — a pool larger than the Boomers by nearly 20 million people. The Government Business Council recently reported that while Millennials make strong candidates for public service, fewer of them are pursuing government jobs than in past years. In short, they are opting out of government.


College students increasingly prefer the private sector, graduate school, or non-profit work, according to the Partnership for Public Service’s analysis of the 2011 National Association for Colleges and Employers Student Survey. In 2008, 8.4 percent of students planned to work for local, state, and federal governments after graduation. That number reached an all-time high of 10.2 percent during the 2009 recession, before dropping to 7.4 percent in 2010.


Now, just 6 percent of college students plan to work for public sector institutions, and only 2.3 percent want to work at the federal level.


And that’s just the bureaucrats. When top-shelf talent abhors politics, it stands to reason that the pool of political candidates gets shallower. “I want to change the world,” said grad student Brian Chialinsky at the Kennedy School.  “I can’t do that in elective office.”


In their landmark books on Millennials, the sociologists Morley Winograd and Michael Hais compare young Americans today to other great “civic generations” that cycle through U.S. history every eight decades, starting with the Founding Fathers and including the generation that elected Abraham Lincoln and of course the Greatest Generation that won World War II. Raised in troubled times, “as adults, they focus on resolving social challenges and building institutions,” Winograd and Hais write in their recent Millennial Momentum. The authors believe Millennials have the makings to be the next great generation.


The trouble is that Millennials believe traditional politics and government (especially Washington) are the worst avenues to great things. They are more likely to be social entrepreneurs, working outside government to create innovative and measurably successful solutions to the nation’s problems, even if only on a relatively small scale. One is Matt Morgan, a Kennedy School student, who launched a website that helps readers respond to articles with political action. “There are so many problems Washington can’t fix that we can,” he says. Another is his classmate Sarah Estill, who wants to provide police departments with technology to fighting crime. “For my generation there are more ways we can effect change than in the past — more tools in the toolbox,” she said. “Why not use all of them?” A generation ago, government had a monopoly on public service. To Millennials, the world is filled with injustice and need, but government isn’t the solution. They have apps for that.


***


So will elite Millennials abandon Washington?


Nicco Mele believes so. A Kennedy School professor who oversaw the groundbreaking digital strategy for 2004 Democratic candidate Howard Dean, Mele said it’s already happening — and it’s a devastating development. “These kids are starting their own things at a rapid rate — in part because there isn’t much of a job for them in the old institutions,” he told me. “If you’re a super-talented, super-smart 22-year-old and it looks like you need to take an unpaid internship and lick envelopes to get into a field you’re interested in, forget it. Better to start something new.” Mele is an investor in ShoutAbout.org, Morgan’s website.


In a book he published this spring, The End of Big: How the Internet Makes David the New Goliath, Mele warns that governments, political parties, corporations and other national institutions are crumbling before the power of the individual and the “radical connectivity” of technology. “Should present trends go unchecked,” Mele writes, “it is easy to imagine a nightmare scenario of social breakdown.”


While that may be the extreme scenario, Mele and other experts on the Millennial Generation say they can easily envision a future without a two-party system. The GOP and (less likely) the Democratic Party could die. Government itself, Mele says, may shed its hierarchical 20th-century approach and evolve into a mere “platform” that creates room for groups of citizens to do start-up ad-hoc projects or for small government groups to provide services in a coordinated manner.


California Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, a forward thinker on digital-age governance, says a Millennial government will be peer-to-peer: ideas and actions bubbling up from citizens. “We need to acknowledge that for a whole generation of Americans under the age 30,” Newsom writes in his book, Citizensville: How to Take the Town Square Digital and Reinvent Government, “their reality is not like the reality of the over-30s grew up with.”


This is what Steele had in mind when the former GOP chair told me to watch the scene in Iron Man 3 when Tony Stark takes a fistful of data about a criminal investigation and throws it onto a 3D screen, where it disaggregates into a collage of microbytes. Using these electronic puzzle pieces, Stark assembles a better picture of who carried out the crime and why. “That scene tells you all you need to know about what Millennials are poised to do to Washington,” Steele told me. “They are going to destroy the old silos, scatter their elements to the wind, and reassemble them in ways that make sense for them and the new century.”


Predicting the future of U.S. politics is risky business. But this much is certain: In a Millennial world, nothing will be sacred. “Millennials will produce radical reconstruction of civil institutions and government,” says Michelle Diggles, a senior policy adviser at the Democratic think-tank Third Way and an expert in demographics and generational politics.


Diggles is the first to admit that, contrary to conventional wisdom, her party does not have a lock on the youth vote — and thus Democrats are not immune to the withering forces of generational change. For instance, she says, 51 percent of Millennials believe that when government runs something it is usually wasteful and inefficient, up from 31 percent in 2003 and 42 percent in 2009: “Hardly a ringing endorsement for a bigger government providing more services.” There’s more: 86 percent of Millennials support private Social Security accounts and 74 percent would change Medicare so people can buy private insurance. Sixty-three percent believe free trade is a good thing. Only 38 percent of Millennials support affirmative action.


In 2008, President Obama spoke directly and successfully to the Millennial experience. But his inability to overcome polarization and gridlock has cost the president support among young Americans (even if they blame the GOP for Washington dysfunction). Not only did Obama’s share of the youth vote decline from 66 percent to 60 percent, but fewer young people participated (45 percent turnout in 2012 compared to 51 percent in 2008), according to Harvard pollster Della Volpe. The drop was most pronounced in swing states where Obama didn’t target and mobilize his voters.


Of course, young Americans tend to like the GOP even less. That’s why a plurality of Millennials (45 percent) describes their affiliation as independent this year, an increase of 6 points just since 2008. Winograd and Hais predict that the next generation of voters will reject traditional liberalism and conservatism. “The Millennial civic ethos,” they wrote, “will instead allow for both consensus and customization.”


Diggles agreed: “This tension – two parties thinking they are in the trenches dueling it out, and a burgeoning generation who reject trench warfare altogether is, for me, the key. Washington doesn’t get that change isn’t just a slogan. It’s about to become a reality.”


“Neither party,” she said, “gets what’s coming down the pike.”


What’s coming are kids like Shayan, the keen-minded Langley High senior who laughed at my question about public service. “Let me tell you what’s going to happen to government and politics when we get ahold of them.” he told me. “We’ll destroy them.”


Shayan paused to let me stew on that a bit before shrugging his shoulders as if to tell this Baby Boom reporter: It’s not the end of the world, old man – just the end of your world. “The thing about social institutions is when you destroy them,” Shayan said, “they get rebuilt eventually, in a different form for a different time.”






    








Master Feed : The Atlantic



The Outsiders: How Can Millennials Change Washington If They Hate It?