STEVE MALZBERG, HOST: So do you agree, 60 percent chance of [Republicans] taking [the Senate], Democrats have a 40 percent chance of keeping it?
LARRY SABATO: That’s actually not what he said. The Crystal Ball has projected this for months, if you listen carefully to what he said, we’ve actually been more precise than he has. He said that Republicans would get six seats plus or minus five. What does that mean? He’s saying that Democrats might have as many as 54 seats coming out of the election, and that’s just ridiculous. The Republicans are guaranteed to gain at least three or four seats. It seems to us that the number is increasing as time goes on. The reason we don’t issue a hard and fast number right now is just you can’t predict the results of low-turnout primaries. That’s the one place where people in my business, election forecasting, are really bad. So you have to wait until the primaries are over to put a number on it. But that 60 percent was very squishy, he said Republicans gain six seats, what they need to take control of the Senate, plus or minus five.
STEVE MALZBERG: Right and Karl chose to focus on, you mean they could gain 11? They could gain one.
SABATO: Exactly, and I think that’s a ridiculously large range. It is just not justified by what we see. It’s going to be a good Republican year. The question is, is it going to be a great Republican year? And there’s no forecaster on earth who can tell you that precisely right now.
Larry Sabato: Nate Silver"s Prediction Is "Ridiculous"
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