As he tries to navigate the politics of a government shutdown that he never wanted, leading a Republican Conference with little interest in being led, House Speaker John Boehner in recent days has scored an unlikely victory of sorts.
Interviews with tea party-aligned House members and other hard-line conservatives reveal a modest if unmistakable rise in support for Boehner — a politician they have previously disdained and tried unsuccessfully to evict from power.
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The hard line Boehner has drawn against President Barack Obama — in the face of polls and media coverage indicating the government shutdown is a political debacle for the GOP — have won the Ohio Republican credibility that he previously lacked with conservatives.
In an odd turnabout, the grumbling about Boehner’s speakership now is rising from the establishment, old-school Republicans who traditionally have been his base of support. These legislators privately wonder whether Boehner is strong enough to both effectively steer the party and avoid a right-wing revolt.
(QUIZ: How well do you know John Boehner?)
The interviews reveal unanimity on one point: Boehner’s speakership now hinges on whether he can somehow emerge from the showdowns over funding the government and raising the debt limit with some victory in hand and without a capitulation to Obama and Hill Democrats.
On Tuesday, Boehner and Obama held dueling news conferences to bash each other. Boehner and House Republicans — who have passed a dozen “targeted” spending bills to reopen parts of the government that immediately stalled in the Senate — offered a bicameral, bipartisan “working group” to discuss government spending and entitlement reform. Obama then said he’d be happy to talk as long as the Republicans reopened the government and passed a debt-ceiling increase. Boehner countered by calling such a move an “unconditional surrender” by House Republicans. And the stalemate over the government shutdown ground on into its ninth day, with a default on U.S. debt looming on Oct. 17.
Until this week, there was a widespread assumption — even among many Boehner allies in the House — that there was little chance he could win a third term as speaker, even if the GOP keeps its House majority in the 2014 elections. He barely won a second term last January, in the face of tea party opposition.
(PHOTOS: 12 lawmakers who didn’t back John Boehner)
Now, the chain-smoking, low-key Boehner seems to have bought himself some margin — a slim one that could easily disintegrate under the pressure of upcoming events.
“I think this has been his best two weeks ever as speaker of the House because he’s doing the things that we have been trying to get him to do since … 2011 when we actually were sworn in,” said Rep. John Fleming (R-La.), a strong conservative. Less than a year ago, Fleming was publicly rebuking Boehner for his handling of the “fiscal cliff” talks with Obama.
Boehner’s performance “is much better than it was,” added Rep. Tim Huelskamp (R-Kan.). “He’s identified our key principles that goes back to what we agreed on in” a January Republican retreat.
(POLITICO’s full coverage of the government shutdown)
“Right now, he could be elected,” said a top House Republican, speaking on the condition of anonymity. “Two weeks ago, no. And talk to me when this is all over, I may have something new for you.”
The question some have is why the speaker would even want the job under his current circumstances, in which Boehner must practice a brand of confrontation and scorched-earth politics that so obviously runs counter to his own deal-making instincts.
“Boehner could win, but I don’t know why he would want to,” said another Boehner ally.
The intense speculation about his future is a reflection of how much the current standoff, in the eyes of some Republicans, is now fundamentally about John Boehner.
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The issue is not, as it was in 2011 and 2012, about any behind-the-scenes rivalry with House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.), a dynamic that has largely receded in 2013. It is not even, any longer, solely about conservative animus toward Obamacare. It is a power conflict in which Boehner is trying to do what he loves most — play the role of deal-maker — while his moves and motives are being watched with as much wariness among Republicans as they are among the Democratic opposition.
This dynamic is why the question consuming Washington and the country during the federal government shutdown — “How does this end?” — is inextricably linked to a more personal question, “How does this end for Boehner?”
Capitol Hill has become consumed in recent days with what can be summarized as three distinct scenarios for answering that question:
• The magic trick scenario
This is the one that 63-year-old Boehner has been hoping for during the past 30 months. The belief is that by hanging in there long enough, buying time with his own party and letting the showdown with Obama play out long enough that he gains credibility with conservatives, the conditions will be ripe for what Boehner really wants. That is a long-term budget deal with the White House that would tackle long-term spending in entitlement programs and advance tax reform — both long-sought goals among many Republicans.
(POLITICO’s full coverage of the debt ceiling)
The rising chatter among some House Republicans about the possibility of using the showdown over opening the government and raising the $ 16.7 trillion federal debt limit in exchange for a “down payment” on the national debt and deficit reflects that viewpoint. Under this thinking, Boehner will finally be acknowledged as a legislative master — ensuring a substantial legacy for the speaker and a worthy reward for the numerous setbacks and humiliations he has endured at the hands of his own party.
The problem with this scenario is the same one that thwarted such efforts previously over the past few years. It does not account for the degree to which hard-core conservatives in Republican ranks will balk at anything that Boehner is also for — despite his growing credibility on the right. The conflict is not simply ideological but also emotional.
Regarding tea party Republicans and junior members, Boehner privately believes it his job to “protect these guys from hurting themselves.” While broadly sympathetic to their ideas against excessive government and regulation and in favor of free markets, he believes they will damage themselves and the party with a strategy of non-stop confrontation.
At heart a pragmatist and conciliator, Boehner believes — in a worldview that is similar to Obama’s — that if you give people a set of facts and possible solutions a common-sense compromise is nearly always possible. Principles are important, but they are elastic enough to accommodate different circumstances.
But this attitude — “Trust me, this will be good for you” — is a big part of why Boehner has so many problems with his caucus. They see his style as fundamentally condescending and cynical and it infuriates them more than the specifics of most policy disputes.
