Showing posts with label Grillo. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Grillo. Show all posts

Tuesday, March 5, 2013

Immigration, Unemployment, The Golden Dawn and The Not-So-Funny Side of Beppe Grillo

It Can

It Can’t Happen Here

So just how do we construct a valid set that that contains poorly-regulated immigration, unemployment, The Golden Dawn, and Beppe Grillo? If we’re lucky, here in America, we probably cannot. So, as Cliff Eastwood famously asked. “Are you feeling lucky?”

Now given the nice, violent intro and the unresolved rhetorical queries above, I should explain this all a bit. I’ll endeavor below. The governments of what we typically refer to as The West are following a set of economic policies and a set of immigration policies that are accidentally making the rise of a politically influential fascist movement more likely in the Western World.

If things work out really badly over here, we could easily be on our way to having people gain power in America like Governor Huey Long. We once had a President who thanked and congratulated Filmmaker D.W Griffith on his pro – Ku Klux Klan historical fantasy “Birth of a Nation.”

So we’ve established that American electorates will vote for fascists if they are smart enough not to publically brand themselves as mass-murderers. Huey “The Kingfish” Long claimed to favor “Sharing the Wealth.” His populist slogan went “Every man a king, but nobody wears a crown.” Woodrow Wilson, while enjoying his pro-KKK movies, styled himself as Progressive.

But are Americans really dumb enough to just elect a crypto-fascist for novelty’s sake? Blessedly no. A lot has to go wrong first. People adapt the ideologies of fascism in response to what they view as existential threats. A common threat that empowers individuals with totalitarian desires involves the confluence between poor employment prospects and massive immigration.

People start out struggling to find work at all. They then see people who were not born in their country come in and find jobs. The fascist then tells the disgruntled person that these immigrants have somehow “stolen” this employment. This is made significantly more believable if native born workers are restricted from employment by minimum wage laws and union membership requiremnts and then they see recent immigrants doing precisely the same types of work they’ve been blocked from entering. Something then has to be done about these people before they breed and take over.

Margaret Sanger made a career as a political activist meeting this perceived need. She addressed The New History Society on January 17th, 1922. Some of Ms. Sanger’s Progressive Liberalism follow below.

…have Congress set up a special department for the study of population problems and appoint a Parliament of Population, the directors representing the various branches of science: this body to direct and control the population through birth rates and immigration. to keep the doors of immigration closed to the entrance of certain aliens whose condition is known to be detrimental to the stamina of the race, such as feebleminded, idiots, morons, insane, syphilitic, epileptic, criminal, professional prostitutes, and others in this class barred by the immigration laws of 1924….. to apply a stern and rigid policy of sterilization and segregation to that grade of population whose progeny is tainted, or whose inheritance is such that objectionable traits may be transmitted to offspring.

We don’t see this tendency gaining adherents in America at present. We have to look over to Europe instead. In Greece, where unemployment is over 20% and the nation is essentially bankrupt, an openly and militant fascist party called The Golden Dawn has seats in Parliament. They base a lot of their appeal on natavism. Here pay close attention to their proposal to reform the Greek Welfare System.

Opinion polls show support for Golden Dawn jumped from 6.9% to 11.5% soon after it entered parliament for the first time at last June’s general election. It has remained steady for several months. The party’s characteristics are violent racism (demonstrated by scores of attacks against immigrants), anti-semitic rhetoric and a “social action programme” for the needy (as long as they can produce a Greek identity card)

.

And in Italy, the economic scene is similar. Former Comedian and radical Leftist, Beppe Grillo, has emerged from the sidelines to form “The 5-Star Movement” and win 25% of the vote in last weekend’s Italian parliamentary elections. I wrote a partially favorable opinion of the man yesterday. Like Mordred and Benedict Arnold, he has a valid point. He probably feels genuinely aggrieved and outraged at what is happening to Italy. I’m sure Huey Long was legitimately peeved about The Great Depression as well.

Grillo, a former comedian, has some not-so-funny aspects to his act as well. He begins amassing power in a state that has effectively been forced to accept an outside “Technical Government” that placed them under servere austerity. Here is a description of conditions in Italy.

Government at all levels is corrupt. It’s the only way people can survive. Everybody is playing double games. People are doing two jobs and running their own businesses out of government offices. Everybody cheats on taxes. The mafia controls half the country. Survival depends on the black market, the black economy. The currency is kept artificially high, so exports crash.

So when Beppe Grillo goes on his blog and uses the old Red Army Slogans he learned growing up, it’s easy just to think the comedian is kidding. Some of the uglier parts of his agenda follow below. The ideals sync up nicely with Woodrow Wilson’s Progressive buddies D.W. Griffith and Margaret Sanger. It’s all about getting rid of the undesireables.

The Jews are a small, wandering minority of Arabs who stole the Holy Land from the others 2,500 years ago. They now run the world through the Illuminati, the Masonic Lodges, the Rockefellers and the Rothschilds. The Jews are responsible for Italy’s mess, because they own the banks that charge usurious interest rates. The Jews who run the world need to be “processed” en masse. Grillo supporters will not define “processed,” but they love the idea. Whatever it means. Beppe Grillo can save Italy by nationalizing the banks and cutting off trade to Europe. The fact that Italy is physically part of Europe is no impediment.

Before we all just laugh at the crazy Italians and crazy Greeks, we should keep in mind that similar ideas have been electorally successful in America. Planned Parenthood made its money helping get rid of undesirables. I’ve argued abortionist Kermit Gosnell did the same until his arrest. Fascist, eugenic thought makes the Freakonomics argument that abortion reduces crime a possibility.

So in conclusion, a society that fails to adequately solve its economic problems and fails to reasonably restrict the extent to which immigration changes the complexion of its society will trigger a violent and ignorant reaction. This reaction will take the form of an authoritarian and nativist political movement that will often seek to remove the “undesirables” from that society in a literal and bloodthirsty fashion.

America today has some of the problems that make fascism powerful. We do not have them to the extent that Southern Europe does. This is why there currently isn’t a powerful and well-represented Golden Dawn Party in the US. If we are lucky, we can continue what we are doing now and we may have nothing this bad actually happen. As I listen to GOP leadership justify a capitulation to the left on both immigration reform and on all matters economic, I have to ask the question: “Do we really feel that lucky?”



Immigration, Unemployment, The Golden Dawn and The Not-So-Funny Side of Beppe Grillo

Sunday, February 24, 2013

Italians Head to Voting Booths, Election Ends 9:00AM EST Monday; Surge for Grillo and "The Apathy Factor" Will Doom Bersani Coalition

Voting booths are open in Italy though 3:00PM Monday (9:00AM EST). Exit polls will trickle in soon after but early exit polls could be misleading. If the result is close will may not know for over a day.

The Wall Street Journal offers this Italian Election Guide.

Italian voters can cast ballots Sunday and until 0900 ET  Monday, after which exit polls will provide quick but approximate insight into the probable result of the election.

The center-left coalition led by Democratic Left leader Pier Luigi Bersani was five percentage points ahead of Silvio Berlusconi’s center-right coalition according to the average of polls before a blackout on such surveys kicked in two weeks ago, giving it clear front-runner status.

Exit polls in 2006 and 2008 underestimated votes cast for Mr. Berlusconi, but unless Italy’s 51 million eligible voters shifted dramatically in recent days, Mr. Bersani should  – even with fewer than a third of the ballots cast – win a plurality, meaning his coalition will be awarded a majority of seats in the 630-seat lower legislative chamber.

Shift Has Taken Place

The Journal says “unless Italy’s 51 million eligible voters shifted dramatically in recent days, Mr. Bersani should  win a plurality.

I suggest such a shift has taken place. The open question regards turnout and apathy, not a shift, per se.

Loser’s Penalty

In the Chamber (the lower House of parliament) the party with the largest plurality in the national vote gets a majority (54%) of the seats. In the Senate (the upper chamber of parliament) each of 17 Italy’s regions operate independently and the winner of each region gets a majority (55%) of the region’s seats.

There are 315 seats in the Senate. Lombardy, Italy’s largest region gets 49 seats and the winner will take 27 seats (55%). The other parties will split the remaining 22. Second place may only get 10.

The Journal sums it up this way.

If Mr. Bersani wins all 17 regions, his coalition will have 178 seats and a commanding upper-house majority. However, if he loses Lombardy, the most populuous region, he will have only 162 seats. If he wins Lombardy but loses Veneto – a near certainty given polling trends – and also loses Sicily – to Mr. Grillo rather than Mr. Berlusconi – the center-left will have 159 Senate seats, a razor-thin majority.

Not So Fast

I am not convinced Bersani wins the Chamber, let alone the Senate. Some 22-25% of Italians were undecided in the election polls before blackout two weeks ago. Since then, I suggest (based on crowd turnout and social media comments) that there has been a surge for Beppe Grillio and Silvio Berlusconi.

The last election polls before the blackout look like this:

  • Bersani center-left 34.5%
  • Berlusconi center-right 29%
  • Beppe Grillo’s Five-Star Movement 19%
  • Monti Civic Choice 12%.

Given the number of undecided voters, Bersani can easily drop 3% or more (and I suspect more). If Berlusconi and/or Grillo gets a huge percent of the undecided votes, Bersani can easily drop  to second or even third place.

Senate Coalition Unlikely

Monti is a lost cause and I doubt he gets more than 10%, making a Senate coalition unlikely if not impossible.

I commented on the possibility of a win by Berlusconi or Grillo in Germany Warns Against “Silvio the Savior” (And That May Backfire); Fake Horse Race Odds Get Around Blackouts.

Reader “AC” who is from Italy but now lives in France writes …

Hi Mish

After a hung parliament, the next most likely outcome may very well be the Five Star Movement (M5S) getting an absolute majority. Rage against the political class is extremely high in Italy, everything that looks “new” is getting votes. Grillo was able to catch the sentiment shift with extremely populist proposals even though his economic program is quite incoherent if not blatantly preposterous.

Grillo support comes from the youngest part of the population.

Undecided voters may not vote at all (in Italy you do not have to register to have right to vote, you are registered by default) or they will probably shift massively to Grillo. The outcome will depend on whether the undecideds stay home.

How Grillo’s parliament members will react as newly elected officials is a real unknown. Grillo himself will not be in the Parliament, and his party will be quite young. None of them have much political experience, even not in smaller city councils.

What they will do? How they will react? Nobody knows. That’s the most “fascinating” thing of M5S, completely new people of a completely new party managed in a completely new way. Grillo and his candidates never did a single minute of TV interview during the whole campaign. They decided to ignore completely TV (but TV has not completely ignored them). This also is completely new, probably new in the modern world.

I do not think Berlusconi will be able to win this time. He has definitely lost a part of his voters, those that expected from him to keep his past promises.

The hung parliament is the most likely outcome, as I said months ago, and I do not even think that Bersani and Monti together will have majority.

Last but not least: Monti has declared yesterday that Merkel was not comfortable with Bersani as Prime Minister, but Merkel officially denied the minute after. Really a strange declaration from a man like Monti that made of international credibility its main “value proposition”.

Regards

AC

The Apathy Factor

I expect a surge of voter enthusiasm for Grillo that will take votes away from Bersani and Berlusconi. Somewhat paradoxically, I also expect a surge in apathy where voters stay home.

The apathy I refer to is not on the Grillo or Berlusconi side, but apathy for Bersani and Monti. Certainly the campaign by Monti is anemic. Thus, unless there is a late surge of energy for Bersani (and I highly doubt there is), Bersani is going to come up short.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis


Italians Head to Voting Booths, Election Ends 9:00AM EST Monday; Surge for Grillo and "The Apathy Factor" Will Doom Bersani Coalition