By Kelly Olsen ,AFP
February 13, 2014, 12:02 am TWN
BEIJING — China’s trade surplus surged in January, according to data Wednesday showing exports strengthened markedly in a potentially brighter note for the world’s second-biggest economy after recent disappointments — although some economists suggested the numbers could be distorted.
The surplus rose 14.0 percent year-on-year in January to US$ 31.86 billion, the General Administration of Customs said, rebounding from a decline the previous month.
Exports jumped more than expected, increasing 10.6 percent to US$ 207.13 billion, while imports were up 10.0 percent at US$ 175.27 billion.
The median forecast in a survey of 11 economists by The Wall Street Journal predicted only a 0.1 percent increase in exports, which had risen 4.3 percent in December. In that month, the overall trade surplus fell 17.4 percent year-on-year to US$ 25.64 billion.
The strong results surprised economists, with some suggesting they were driven by disguised capital flows instead of real demand.
“We find this strong level of export growth puzzling,” Zhang Zhiwei, economist at Nomura International in Hong Kong, wrote in an analysis, adding it was “unclear to what extent” it indicates “true strength” in China’s economy.
“At this stage, we believe capital inflows may have contributed at least partly to January’s strong export growth numbers.”
Analysts have long taken Chinese economic statistics with more than a grain of salt.
Early last year unusual swings in trade figures were seen as driven by over-invoicing by exporters and importers in a bid to disguise capital flows, a practice the government is believed to have cracked down on later.
“While this could reflect an improving external demand, we suspect that export over-invoicing activities have re-emerged,” Liu Li-Gang and Zhou Hao of ANZ bank wrote on January’s trade data.
“It is important to note that China’s regional trading partners such as Taiwan and South Korea registered very weak January exports,” they added.
But other analysts endorsed the data. Economists at Barclays said in a research note that they “do not see clear evidence of fake trades.”
Mainland China trade surplus rebounds in Jan. to US$31.86 bil.
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