The price of bitcoin has stabilized around $650, but the future of the digital currency is still hazy. Horizons columnist Michael Casey says digital currencies have a future, but it may not be the future you think. Photo: Getty Images.
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After nearly three years of haggling between regulators and bankers, the so-called Volcker rule is on the cusp of becoming law. But even after years of debate, big questions remain about this rule. Neil Barofsky, the former special inspector general of the TARP program, joins MoneyBeat.
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With gains of more than 30% for many financial stocks so far this year, the sector has given many traditional value investors vertigo. David Reilly explains why investors should look closer at the gains.
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JP Morgan, Citi win bigger share of investment banking revenue
http://currenteconomictrendsandnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/a8915__?m=02&d=20131114&t=2&i=811863070&w=460&fh=&fw=&ll=&pl=&r=CBRE9AD1BR900.jpg
LONDON
Traders work at the post that trades JP Morgan on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange May 11, 2012.
Credit: Reuters/Brendan McDermid
LONDON (Reuters) – U.S. investment banks JPMorgan Chase & Co and Citi saw their share of investment banking revenue increase more than any of their peers in the first nine months of the year, new research showed on Thursday.
Among the 13 investment banks tracked by research firm Tricumen, JP Morgan and Citi each saw their share of operating revenue rise 0.7 percentage points over the period.
Tricumen partner Darko Kapor said JPMorgan’s performance stemmed from continued strength in equity and debt capital markets, which are among its biggest businesses, as well as a strong third quarter in interest rates, foreign exchange, credit and equity derivatives trading, where it outpaced most peers.
Year-to-date, JPMorgan earned the most from capital markets, making operating revenue of $ 19.5 billion, ahead of Goldman Sachs and Citi, which made $ 17.9 billion and $ 15 billion respectively, a Tricumen ranking showed.
The report will be welcome news to JPMorgan, which last month posted its first quarterly loss under Chief Executive Jamie Dimon, and faces over a dozen legal probes globally.
Tricumen said Citi’s gains stemmed from the resilience of its fixed income, currency and commodities (FICC) trading revenues, an area where many of its competitors saw revenues battered in the third quarter.
Britain-based Tricumen tracks data from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Barclays, BNP Paribas, Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Royal Bank of Scotland, Societe Generale and UBS.
French bank Societe Generale also saw its share of revenue increase by 0.7 percentage points, though it remains a much smaller player than its peers.
Kapor said SocGen has been increasing its revenue share throughout the year through its activities in debt capital markets, where it seems to have found a way to increase or at least maintain margin.
Goldman Sachs was among the biggest losers, seeing its share of revenue drop by 0.7 percentage points after a tough third quarter, according to Tricumen.
Revenue from FICC trading for clients, one of Goldman’s biggest businesses, tumbled 47 percent in the quarter, Goldman reported in October.
Switzerland’s UBS, however, was the worst performer. Its share of revenue slipped 1.1 percentage points due its pull back from FICC.
Separately on Thursday, research by analytics firm Coalition forecast revenue at the top 10 global investment banks to decline by 5 percent to $ 151.7 billion in 2013 due to weak returns from FICC activities.
FICC revenues are expected to fall 20 percent year-on-year to $ 73.6 billion after a decline in institutional client activity, the absence of another European Central Bank long-term refinancing operation (LTRO) and bankers holding off trading in anticipation of interest rates rises, Coalition said.
Equities, however, are forecast to deliver their best return since 2010, with revenues up 22 percent year-on-year at $ 40.9 billion, while investment banking will see revenues rise 10 percent to $ 37.2 billion, Coalition’s report showed.
Coalition includes data from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Barclays, BNP Paribas, Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and UBS.
(Reporting by Clare Hutchison; Editing by Mark Potter)
Global Economy: Surprise tactics sweep central banking
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LONDON
A general view of the U.S. Federal Reserve building as the morning sky breaks over Washington, July 31, 2013.
Credit: Reuters/Jonathan Ernst
LONDON (Reuters) – After slashing interest rates to almost nothing and printing trillions of dollars, central banks are becoming increasingly reliant on another policy weapon: sucker punching markets.
The European Central Bank shocked investors and forecasters last Thursday by cutting its main refinancing rate to a record low, reacting to a shock decline in inflation.
It was the second big central bank surprise in less than two months, after the U.S. Federal Reserve decided in September not to trim its monthly bond purchase stimulus.
And beyond the immediate impact on financial markets, central banks’ shock therapy tactics have also had a lasting effect.
The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond — one measure of government borrowing costs — fell sharply in the aftermath of the Fed’s decision, and it shows no signs of revisiting September’s peaks for the year any time soon.
The ECB’s rate cut helped weaken the euro more than 1 percent against the dollar, and most economists polled by Reuters reckon it will put the currency on a firmly lower path from here — huge help for the fragile euro zone recovery. <ECB/INT>
With scant room left to cut interest rates again and appetite for more rounds of money printing waning, economists say surprising markets will increasingly feature in policymaking.
“It makes sense that with the artillery becoming depleted, central banks want more bang for their buck now. One way of doing that is to launch surprises in markets,” said Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec in London.
“It wouldn’t be a shock if the ECB was pleased that it surprised markets,” he added, noting the ECB managed this without breaking its guidance to keep interest rates low or lower for an extended period of time.
AN OLD TOOL, BUT A GOOD ONE
Jolting markets with an unexpected decision has always been in the central bankers’ toolkit.
Germany’s Bundesbank, for instance, was famed for its sudden moves when it set monetary policy for Europe’s biggest economy in the pre-euro days, said Elwin de Groot, senior market economist at Rabobank in Amsterdam.
But there are good reasons why bolt-from-the-blue policy moves are even more effective today.
“In recent years, the trend in central bank policymaking has been for more transparency, more guidance, and trying not to surprise the market,” said de Groot.
“But occasionally you can surprise, and it works better. It keeps the market sharp; it sends a strong signal to the market that its assumptions were wrong.”
This year has been peppered with such instances.
Back in April, economists expected the Bank of Japan would ease policy — but few dreamed it would unveil a plan to unleash $ 1.4 trillion worth of monetary stimulus into the economy over less than two years.
And wrong-footing markets has become a defining policy tool for the ECB since Mario Draghi became its president.
The ECB cut rates unexpectedly at the first meeting where Draghi was in charge, two years ago this month.
His shock announcement last July that the ECB would take on rising government borrowing costs and do “whatever it takes” to save the euro proved decisive in easing the region’s debt crisis.
It remains to be seen whether Draghi’s incoming counterpart at the Fed, Janet Yellen, will share his penchant for surprise.
Markets might get a better sense of that when the U.S. Senate Banking Committee vets Yellen’s nomination as Fed chairman on Thursday to replace Ben Bernanke, whose term expires on January 31.
In a quiet week for international economic data, focus will also rest on the Bank of England’s quarterly Inflation Report outlook for the UK economy, due on Wednesday, the second since Mark Carney’s appointment as governor.
“What markets will be looking for is where the new forecasts lie, and in particular, where the Monetary Policy Committee views the unemployment rate is going,” said Investec’s Shaw.
The Bank of England left interest rates at record lows on Thursday, but is likely to suggest next week that borrowing costs could rise sooner than it had forecast as the economic recovery gathers pace.
(Reporting by Andy Bruce; Editing by Leslie Adler)
By Randy Hilarski
This morning the National Bank of Panama announced that it was suspending all services until Tuesday the 1st of October. The National Bank of Panama says that the reason is to upgrade systems. The Banking Holiday in Panama was announced this am.
This system wide shutdown has country wide implications. The National Bank of Panama did not warn the people before making the announcement and shutting down the banks. The people do not have access to ATM’s either. We received word of this from family members first. This weekend is payday for people across Panama.
I am active among the Gold and Silver investing community. We have been discussing at great length about the possibility of bank holidays in countries on the Dollar standard. Could Panama just be the first domino to fall in the banking system? Could this be more than just a system upgrade? Why not tell the people ahead of time to prepare for the closure of the banking system?
What are some reasons for a bank holiday? The National Bank of Panama says it is a system upgrade, I don’t believe it is that simple. Maybe a Dollar revaluation could be coming soon. Maybe it is something more serious like a banking crisis like we had in Indonesia back in 1997 or more recently in Cyprus. I am hoping for the best and preparing for the worst.
What are some things you can do to protect yourself if Panama is just the first signal of a pending banking crisis? First and foremost make sure to have some cash. Second buy the essentials for your family. Be frugal until the storm passes. I know this sounds simplistic, but those who are prepared will be fine.
I feel for the Panama families who live paycheck to paycheck. They were expecting to be paid tomorrow. This is the time that they go grocery shopping, put gas in their cars and pay the bills. This delay will have wide ranging affects on the people of Panama.
Do not be unprepared, you have it within your power to be ready for such a situation!
Latest update. 6pm CST
The Clave (Debit Card) system has been taken offline. No wire transfers between banks and internationally until the 1st of October. Panamanians will be required to go to their local bank branch to take out cash.
– Posted Thursday, 26 September 2013 | Digg This Article
By Randy Hilarski
This morning the National Bank of Panama announced that it was suspending all services until Tuesday the 1st of October. The National Bank of Panama says that the reason is to upgrade systems. The Banking Holiday in Panama was announced this am.
This system wide shutdown has country wide implications. The National Bank of Panama did not warn the people before making the announcement and shutting down the banks. The people do not have access to ATM’s either. We received word of this from family members first. This weekend is payday for people across Panama.
I am active among the Gold and Silver investing community. We have been discussing at great length about the possibility of bank holidays in countries on the Dollar standard. Could Panama just be the first domino to fall in the banking system? Could this be more than just a system upgrade? Why not tell the people ahead of time to prepare for the closure of the banking system?
What are some reasons for a bank holiday? The National Bank of Panama says it is a system upgrade, I don’t believe it is that simple. Maybe a Dollar revaluation could be coming soon. Maybe it is something more serious like a banking crisis like we had in Indonesia back in 1997 or more recently in Cyprus. I am hoping for the best and preparing for the worst.
What are some things you can do to protect yourself if Panama is just the first signal of a pending banking crisis? First and foremost make sure to have some cash. Second buy the essentials for your family. Be frugal until the storm passes. I know this sounds simplistic, but those who are prepared will be fine.
I feel for the Panama families who live paycheck to paycheck. They were expecting to be paid tomorrow. This is the time that they go grocery shopping, put gas in their cars and pay the bills. This delay will have wide ranging affects on the people of Panama.
Do not be unprepared, you have it within your power to be ready for such a situation!
Latest update. 6pm CST
The Clave (Debit Card) system has been taken offline. No wire transfers between banks and internationally until the 1st of October. Panamanians will be required to go to their local bank branch to take out cash.
– Posted Thursday, 26 September 2013 | Digg This Article
Months of anticipation will come to an end this week when the Federal Reserve finally says whether it will start to rein in its massive stimulus of the economy, which has flooded financial markets with some $2.75 trillion over the past five years, supercharging returns on everything from stocks to junk bonds.
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