GOP approval rating hits lowest point in Gallup poll history...

By david-mccumberhearstdc-com-david-mccumber-washington-bureau-chief@blog.timesunion.com (david.mccumber@hearstdc.com (David McCumber, Washington Bureau Chief))

Only 28 percent of Americans have a favorable impression of the Republican Party, according to the latest Gallup poll, taken after Sen. Ted Cruz’s 21-hour speech and the subsequent government shutdown. (Getty Images)

No, Republicans, the Gallup Poll is not a limbo contest.

Republicans seem to be playing “how low can you go.” Just 28 percent of Americans have a favorable impression of the GOP, according to the latest monthly Gallup tracking poll. The number ” is the lowest favorable rating measured for either party since Gallup began asking this question in 1992,” the polling company stated.

The number is 10 points lower than the party scored in the same poll in September.

Democrats, meanwhile, got a favorable rating from only 43 percent of respondents, down four points from last month.

The contrasting numbers seem to demonstrate the way blame for the government shutdown is being allocated to the respective parties by the public.

The poll surveyed 1,028 adults between Oct. 3 and Oct. 6.

The only similar trend in the poll’s history was the rating of Republicans after the vote to impeach President Bill Clinton in December 1998. Then, Republicans dropped 12 points, from 43 percent to 31 percent, although the party’s popularity recovered somewhat in subsequent months.

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GOP approval rating hits lowest point in Gallup poll history...

41%: Obama’s Approval Drops to Lowest Level in Gallup Poll Since 2011

CNS News
August 11, 2013

The percentage of Americans saying that they approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as president dropped to 41% in the Gallup poll’s three-day tracking average, the lowest it has been since Dec. 28, 2011.

Obama’s approval rating plunged in polling data the evening after he gave a rare afternoon press conference.

In Gallup’s three-day tracking period that ended on Thursday, Aug. 8, 44 percent had said they approve of the job he is doing and 46 percent said they disapproved.

One day later, in the tracking period that ended on Friday, Aug. 9, Obama’s approval was at 41 percent and his disapproval at 50 percent.

This article was posted: Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 4:21 am

Tags: domestic news, government corruption

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41%: Obama’s Approval Drops to Lowest Level in Gallup Poll Since 2011

Lowest Core PCE in History; "Flation" Perspective

Doug Short at Advisor Perspectives has a pair of interesting reports on price inflation as measured by the CPE and PCI.

Please consider PCE Price Index Update: Sorry Fed, The Disinflationary Trend Continues.

The latest Headline PCE price index year-over-year (YoY) rate of 0.74% is a decrease from last month’s adjusted 1.01%. The Core PCE index of 1.05% is decrease from the previous month’s adjusted 1.17%. It is the lowest Core PCE ever recorded; the previous all-time low was 1.06% in March 1963, fifty years ago.

The continuing disinflationary trend in core PCE (the blue line in the charts below) must be troubling to the Fed. After years of ZIRP and waves of QE, this closely watched indicator has been consistently moving in the wrong direction for over a year. It has contracted month-over-month for ten of the last 13 months since its interim high of 1.96% in March of 2012 and is now approaching half that YoY rate.

The first chart shows the monthly year-over-year change in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index since 2000. I’ve also included an overlay of the Core PCE (less Food and Energy) price index, which is Fed’s preferred indicator for gauging inflation. I’ve highlighted 2 to 2.5 percent range. Two percent had generally been understood to be the Fed’s target for core inflation. However, the December 12 FOMC meeting raised the inflation ceiling to 2.5% for the next year or two while their accommodative measures (low FFR and quantitative easing) are in place.

click on chart for sharper image

For a long-term perspective, here are the same two metrics spanning five decades.

click on chart for sharper image

Inquiring minds may also wish to consider Two Measures of Inflation: Core PCE at Its All-Time Low

“Flation” Perspective

Inflation, deflation, and disinflation are all in the eyes of the beholder, and all depend on the definition. Still I expect another round of deflation possibly with prices but more importantly with credit, my preferred measure of “flation”.

Regardless of how one measures “flation”, the hyperinflationists missed the boat by a mile.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Mike “Mish” Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis

Lowest Core PCE in History; "Flation" Perspective

You"ll Never Believe Who Is The Lowest Low Wage Job Creator In America

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You"ll Never Believe Who Is The Lowest Low Wage Job Creator In America

The US Murder Rate Is on Track to Be Lowest in a Century

This is fairly preliminary data, but Rick Nevin reports that if current trends keep up, we’ll end 2013 with the murder rate in America at its lowest rate in over a century.

• America’s Real Criminal Element: Lead



• Is There Lead In Your House?



• An Interview With Pioneering Toxicologist Howard Mielke



• How Dangerous Is the Lead in Bullets?



• Does Lead Paint Produce More Crime Too?



• How Your Water Company May Be Poisoning Your Kids

More MoJo coverage of the dangers of lead.

Analytically speaking, murder is an especially interesting crime because we have pretty good homicide statistics going all the way back to 1900. Most other crimes have only been tracked since about 1960. And if you look at the murder rate in the chart below (the red line), you see that it follows an odd double-hump pattern: rising in the first third of the century, reaching a peak around 1930; then declining until about 1960; then rising again, reaching a second peak around 1990. It’s been dropping ever since then.

This is the exact same pattern we see in lead ingestion among small children, offset by 21 years (the black line). Lead exposure rises in the late 1800s, during the heyday of lead paint, reaching a peak around 1910; then declines through World War II; and then begins rising again during our postwar love affair with big cars that burned high-octane leaded gasoline. Lead finally enters its final decline in the mid-70s when we begin the switch to unleaded gasoline.

This is powerful evidence in favor of the theory that lead exposure in childhood produces higher rates of violent crime in adulthood. It’s one thing to have two simple curves that match up well. That could just be a coincidence. But to have two unusual double-humped curves that match up well is highly unlikely unless there really is an association. Put that together with all the statistical evidence from other countries; plus the prospective studies that have tracked lead exposure in individual children from birth; plus the MRI scans showing the actual locations of brain damage in adults who were exposed to lead as children—put all that together and you have a pretty compelling set of evidence. Lead exposure doesn’t just lower IQs and hurt educational development. It also increases violent tendencies later in life. If we want less crime 20 years from now, the best thing we can do today is clean up the last of our lead.

Politics | Mother Jones

The US Murder Rate Is on Track to Be Lowest in a Century

China HSBC April services PMI falls to lowest in nearly two years

A parking lot is seen along the Huangpu River near the financial district of Pudong in Shanghai December 12, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Carlos Barria

BEIJING | Sun May 5, 2013 9:50pm EDT

BEIJING (Reuters) – Growth in China’s services sector slowed sharply in April to its lowest point since August 2011, a private sector survey showed on Monday, in fresh evidence that economic revival will remain modest and may be facing wider risks.

The HSBC services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 51.1 in April from 54.3 in March, with new order expansion the slowest in 20 months and staffing levels in the service sector decreasing for the first time since January 2009.

The HSBC services PMI follows a similar survey by China’s National Bureau of Statistics, which found non-manufacturing activity eased to 54.5.

“The cooling of service sector activity in April likely reflected the knock-on effect of slower manufacturing growth, the impact of property tightening measures and the spreading bird flu,” said HSBC’s China chief economist Qu Hongbin.

A reading above 50 indicates activity in the sector is accelerating, while one below 50 indicates it is slowing.

Two separate PMIs last week showed that China’s manufacturing sector growth had slowed, suggesting the country’s exports engine is running into headwinds from the euro zone recession and sluggish growth in the United States.

In the latest survey, the sub-index measuring new business orders dropped sharply to a 20-month low of 51.5 in April, with only 15 percent of survey respondents reporting an increased volume of new orders that month, HSBC said.

“Again, this started to bite employment growth. All these are likely to add some risk to China’s growth in 2Q, as there’s still a bumpy road towards sustaining growth recovery,” Qu said.

The employment sub-index decreased to 49.6 in April, the first net reduction in staff numbers since January 2009, although HSBC said job losses were marginal, partially caused by firms down-sizing and employee resignations.

Employment is a decisive factor shaping government thinking because it is crucial for social stability. The services sector accounted for 46 percent of China’s gross domestic product in 2012, as big as the country’s better-known manufacturing industry.

At the depth of the global financial crisis in 2008/2009, an estimated 20 million rural migrant workers lost their jobs, prompting Beijing to unveil a 4 trillion yuan stimulus package to shore up the economy and provide employment.

China’s annual economic growth dipped to 7.4 percent in the third quarter, slowing for seven quarters in a row and leaving the economy on course for its weakest showing since 1999.

The government has set a 2013 growth target of 7.5 percent, a level Beijing deems sufficient for job creation while providing room to deliver reforms to the economy.

(Reporting By Xiaoyi Shao and Jonathan Standing; Editing by Sanjeev Miglani)

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Reuters: Business News

China HSBC April services PMI falls to lowest in nearly two years