Showing posts with label stimulus. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stimulus. Show all posts

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Networks’ Discussions of Fed Stimulus 91 Percent Positive

ABC, CBS and NBC mostly ignore criticism of quantitative easing and evidence it has done little to stimulate economy.



After spending about $ 2.3 trillion in stimulus since 2008, the Federal Reserve’s controversial quantitative easing (QE) strategy’s days may be numbered. MarketWatch expected a decision on the policy from the Fed on Dec. 18, following their two-day meeting.


The policy has many critics including the former Fed employee who lashed out at it in a “Confessions of a Quantitative Easer” op-ed. Studies also show that QE hasn’t been the economic stimulus the Fed had hoped. Yet, when the broadcast networks have discussed how QE impacts the economy they almost unanimously supported the Fed’s purchase program.


In three months of coverage, from Sept. 1 to Dec. 1, ABC, CBS and NBC news programs were overwhelmingly positive about the Federal Reserve spending $ 85 billion per month. Out of 11 stories that discussed the effect of QE on the economy, 10 of them were positive (91 percent), while only one suggested continuing the fiscal policy could harm the economy. An additional 13 stories during that time mentioned QE, but did not discuss its relationship to the economy at all so they could not be viewed as positive or negative.


Despite the broadcast network’s positive portrayal of QE, academics and even former Fed officials have criticized the efficacy of the program and described it is a massive subsidy to big banks and Wall Street.


The Federal Reserve announced Sept. 18 that it would continue QE, although there had been much speculation that it would begin to taper the program. ABC’s George Stephanopoulos praised the decision on “Good Morning America” Sept. 19. He called it a “welcome surprise to traders that kept markets climbing around the world.”


Like Stephanopoulos, the networks overwhelmingly supported the Fed’s quantitative easing process, heralding the continuation of Fed stimulus as good news. They emphasized its role in supporting the economy and boosting the stock market.


Prior to that September meeting, the networks hyped the extent that the Fed helped support the economy and create jobs. On Sept. 6, CBS Senior Business Analyst Jill Schlesinger told “This Morning” viewers that “It’s like the economy is an athlete and we’re injured, and the Fed’s been pumping steroids into that athlete until the athlete’s better.”


Later on ABC’s Rebecca Jarvis also praised it for boosting the stock market, saying on “Good Morning America” Nov. 18, “The last six weeks, stocks have gained every single week. And a big part of this is the Federal Reserve continuing to pump billions of dollars in stimulus into the markets.”


Of the 11 network stories that discussed QE’s effect on the economy, only one NBC story indicated possible problems. NBC’s Savannah Guthrie suggested the decision to continue the policy could have negative consequences on “Today” Sept. 19. She said the Fed’s announcement to continue QE “has spurred a global rally in stocks. But it may not necessarily be good news for the economy.” But Guthrie did not explain why the continuation might be bad news.


QE: Not So Stimulative


Under quantitative easing, the Federal Reserve has spent billions on bank assets and bonds each month since late 2008. The purpose was to increase bank reserves and lower interest rates for loans and mortgages. By lowering interest rates, the Fed hoped to help consumer and business spending and borrowing, ideally stimulating the economy and creating jobs.


Critics generally described quantitative easing as ineffective, despite the incredible amount of money involved. The financial paper Investor’s Business Daily reported on Aug. 19 that two Fed economists found QE’s benefit to the economy was “virtually nonexistent.” The economists analyzed the second phase of quantitative easing (QE2), between 2010 and 2012, and found that it“likely boosted GDP by a mere 0.13 percentage point,” resulting in $ 200 billion added to the economy. Not a lot of bang for $ 600 billion.


Moreover, one academic study into quantitative easing found that the program was actually harmful to the economy. Dr. Robert E. Hall, Stanford professor of economics and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, argued that “an expansion of reserves contracts the economy.” When the Fed buys assets as part of quantitative easing, it swells the amount of money that private banks have on reserve. According to Dr. Hall, these increasing reserves actively damaged the economy.


Rather than restoring the overall economy, some say quantitative easing has benefited a particular group of people: wealthy bankers. Andrew Huszar, who managed Fed security purchases in 2009 and 2010, explained this phenomenon in blistering critique of quantitative easing published in the Nov. 11 Wall Street Journal.


Huszar claimed that QE provided “only trivial relief for Main Street,” while it was “an absolute coup for Wall Street.” Building on Hall’s criticism, Huszar explained how the banks, despite growing reserves, “were only issuing fewer and fewer loans” and weren’t “helping to make credit any more accessible for the average American.”


In the end, Huszar argued that, as a result of quantitative easing and its benefits for big banks, “the Fed had lost any remaining ability to think independently from Wall Street.”


Despite such benefits for Wall Street, many bankers are still critical of the program or at least of its continuation. According to the Des Moines Register, Mark Vitner, Wells Fargo’s senior economist, claimed that uncertainty over the end of quantitative easing “is creating a lot of angst for businesses and households, and folks are putting off key decisions.” He said the policy had done all the good it would and that it was time to “rip the Band-Aid off.”


In addition, Barry Sternlicht, CEO of the investment firm Starwood Capital Group, likened quantitative easing to “a heroin addition” in a Nov. 5 CNBC interview. He urged the Fed to discontinue the program, saying “It’s not good. This is not good, and – and this is not smart.”



— Sean Long is Intern at the Media Research Center. Follow Sean Long on Twitter.







Networks’ Discussions of Fed Stimulus 91 Percent Positive

Monday, November 18, 2013

Fed stimulus, China reform promises buoy stocks

Fed stimulus, China reform promises buoy stocks

PARIS (AP) — Hopes that the U.S. Federal Reserve will continue to support the world’s largest economy and a new reform effort in China shored up markets Monday, particularly in the U.S. where the main stock indexes broke new ground.
Business Headlines



Read more about Fed stimulus, China reform promises buoy stocks and other interesting subjects concerning Economy at TheDailyNewsReport.com

Friday, September 13, 2013

Stimulus II: The Best Case for an Economic Sequel Actually Comes from Hollywood


Wikimedia Commons

It might not make up for R.I.P.D. (it’s Men-in-Black … with ghosts!), but Hollywood has done something worthwhile lately. It’s reduced our debt burden. 


Now, remember, it’s not the size of our debt that matters. It’s the size of our debt compared to our income — our GDP. And even that really only matters insofar as lenders think it does. Semi-mythical bond vigilantes might revolt over higher debt levels, and demand higher interest rates. Or they might just be the bogeymen of James Carville’s imagination. There are plenty of countries that have run up big debt-to-GDP ratios without paying more to borrow — and sometimes less. That’s what happens when the economy slumps, and there’s a flight to safety. Japan, of course, has borrowed more than 200 percent of its GDP during its lost decade and a half, but its 10-year borrowing costs have tumbled to 0.73 percent. Now, higher debt levels are associated with lower growth, but, as Reinhart and Rogoff’s L’Affaire Excel reminds us, it’s only that — an association. It isn’t clear which way the causation runs. And no, there aren’t any magic red debt lines either.


So what does this have to do with Hollywood? Well, the Bureau of Economic Analysis recently revised how it calculates GDP to include intangible things like R&D spending and movie or television royalties. Add it all up, and our GDP is actually 3 percent bigger than we previously thought it was. Woohoo.


Of course, higher GDP means a lower debt-to-GDP ratio. As you can see in the chart below from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, our debt burden is about 2.5 percentage points lower than we thought it was before — 72.5, and not 75, percent. (Compare the red and orange lines).



Who cares? No really, who cares? Markets certainly don’t. It’s not as if a little lower debt-to-GDP ratio has made us any more creditworthy. After all, our long-term budget outlook hasn’t changed any. Our debt has just shifted down a bit.


And that’s kind of a profound point. Think about it in reverse. If a one-time downshift in our debt hasn’t made us any more creditworthy, then a one-time upshift in our debt won’t make us any less creditworthy either. And what’s a one-time upshift in our debt? A stimulus. As Paul Krugman points out, the 2009 stimulus wasn’t a temporary program that became permanent — it faded away too soon and too fast.  And a new stimulus would eventually fade away too. Okay, but would another couple percentage points of GDP of stimulus really matter? Yes, very much so. Krugman’s back-of-the-envelope calculation is that filling the output gap would only add about 4 percentage points to our debt-to-GDP ratio — while hopefully keeping the long-term unemployed from becoming unemployable, and making the investments we need today to keep growing tomorrow. Not bad for something that would only slightly increase our interest payments today, but not the market’s fears of our fiscal tomorrow.


For once, Hollywood isn’t making a sequel. It’s showing us that we should — a new stimulus. 


That’d be waaay better than R.I.P.D. 2.


 






    








Master Feed : The Atlantic



Stimulus II: The Best Case for an Economic Sequel Actually Comes from Hollywood

Sunday, August 18, 2013

The Immigration Stimulus


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WSJ.com: Opinion



The Immigration Stimulus

Friday, August 2, 2013

U.S. jobs data may show strength, prompt stimulus end




A pedestrian holding an umbrella walks past a stock quotation board displaying various stock prices outside a brokerage in Tokyo July 29, 2013. REUTERS/Yuya Shino


1 of 3. A pedestrian holding an umbrella walks past a stock quotation board displaying various stock prices outside a brokerage in Tokyo July 29, 2013.


Credit: Reuters/Yuya Shino






TOKYO | Thu Aug 1, 2013 11:26pm EDT



TOKYO (Reuters) – Asian shares advanced on Friday after brisk U.S. factory activity data and a commitment to easy monetary policy by European central banks and the Federal Reserve buoyed Wall Street to record highs overnight.


Stirred by optimism on the U.S. economic recovery, the benchmark U.S. Treasuries edged closer to a two-year high and triggered a sharp rebound in the dollar from a six-week low hit against a basket of currencies on Wednesday.


A strong reading in the upcoming U.S. payrolls data, due at 1230 GMT (8.30 a.m. ET), is likely to stoke further momentum in markets, possibly pushing the 10-year U.S. yield to new two-year highs.


“Essentially, the market is waiting for a global economic recovery in the latter half of this year,” said Tohru Yamamoto, chief fixed income strategist at Daiwa Securities.


“We had a decent Chinese manufacturing data yesterday. Periphery European countries are also improving recently. And central banks have confirmed that easy policy will be in place. These are the reasons why a rise in bond yields are not destabilizing share prices today unlike in June,” he added.


The European Central Bank and the Bank of England both ended policy meetings by leaving interest rates at record lows on Thursday, a day after the Fed said the U.S. economy still needed its support and avoided any mention of a change to its stimulus measures.


The Nikkei share average .N225 rose 1.4 percent while ex-Japan Asian shares gained 0.4 percent .MIAPJ0000PUS.


Shares in South Korea .KS11 and Hong Kong .HSI hit two-month peaks while Australian stocks .AXJO rose to a 2 1/2-month highs.


On Thursday, the Dow Jones index .DJI rose 0.8 percent and S&P 500 .SPX gained 1.3 percent to end above 1,700 for the first time ever.


The dollar index held onto Thursday’s gains of 1.1 percent, its biggest one-day rally in a month, to stand at 82.318 .DXY, extending its rebound from six-week low of 81.407 hit on Wednesday.


The broad rally in the dollar saw the euro ease to $ 1.3192, flat on the day but off Wednesday’s six-week high of $ 1.3345, while the yen fell towards 100 per dollar, well off this week’s high around 97.58.


The Australian dollar hit a three-year low as the currency was also smarting from dovish comments by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on Tuesday.


That prompted markets to not only price in a cut in interest rates next week, but a second easing before year-end, shrinking the yield premium offered by Australian over U.S. debt to its lowest since 2008. <AUD/>


On Thursday, U.S. data underlined the markets’ optimism about the recovery in the world’s largest economy. The Institute for Supply Management index of U.S. national factory activity for July rose to its highest level since June 2011, easing concerns a slowdown in emerging economies may take a toll on U.S. growth.


A separate report also showed first-time applications for jobless benefits hit a 5-1/2-year low last week, boding well for the payroll data.


A monthly rise in hiring in the 200,000 area, analysts say, should keep the Fed on track to start to pare its $ 85 billion purchases in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, as early as at its September 17-18 meeting.


“The market has digested the idea that the U.S. tapering will occur at some point,” said Andrew Doherty, head of equities at Morningstar, an independent research house based in Sydney.


“There’s been a reappraisal and revaluation that has seen moves back into high-yielding stocks providing decent returns for investors.”


Expectations of a gradual reduction in the Fed’s bond buying drove the 10-year U.S. Treasuries yield to 2.712 percent, within sight of a two-year peak of 2.755 percent hit last month.


U.S. crude oil futures prices were headed for their biggest weekly gain in a month, having risen three percent this week on upbeat global economic data and supply disruptions in Africa and Iraq. It last traded up 0.6 percent at $ 108.64 per barrel.


(Additional reporting by Thuy Ong in Sydney; Editing by Shri Navaratnam)





Reuters: Business News



U.S. jobs data may show strength, prompt stimulus end

U.S. jobs data may show strength, prompt stimulus end




A pedestrian holding an umbrella walks past a stock quotation board displaying various stock prices outside a brokerage in Tokyo July 29, 2013. REUTERS/Yuya Shino


1 of 3. A pedestrian holding an umbrella walks past a stock quotation board displaying various stock prices outside a brokerage in Tokyo July 29, 2013.


Credit: Reuters/Yuya Shino






TOKYO | Thu Aug 1, 2013 11:26pm EDT



TOKYO (Reuters) – Asian shares advanced on Friday after brisk U.S. factory activity data and a commitment to easy monetary policy by European central banks and the Federal Reserve buoyed Wall Street to record highs overnight.


Stirred by optimism on the U.S. economic recovery, the benchmark U.S. Treasuries edged closer to a two-year high and triggered a sharp rebound in the dollar from a six-week low hit against a basket of currencies on Wednesday.


A strong reading in the upcoming U.S. payrolls data, due at 1230 GMT (8.30 a.m. ET), is likely to stoke further momentum in markets, possibly pushing the 10-year U.S. yield to new two-year highs.


“Essentially, the market is waiting for a global economic recovery in the latter half of this year,” said Tohru Yamamoto, chief fixed income strategist at Daiwa Securities.


“We had a decent Chinese manufacturing data yesterday. Periphery European countries are also improving recently. And central banks have confirmed that easy policy will be in place. These are the reasons why a rise in bond yields are not destabilizing share prices today unlike in June,” he added.


The European Central Bank and the Bank of England both ended policy meetings by leaving interest rates at record lows on Thursday, a day after the Fed said the U.S. economy still needed its support and avoided any mention of a change to its stimulus measures.


The Nikkei share average .N225 rose 1.4 percent while ex-Japan Asian shares gained 0.4 percent .MIAPJ0000PUS.


Shares in South Korea .KS11 and Hong Kong .HSI hit two-month peaks while Australian stocks .AXJO rose to a 2 1/2-month highs.


On Thursday, the Dow Jones index .DJI rose 0.8 percent and S&P 500 .SPX gained 1.3 percent to end above 1,700 for the first time ever.


The dollar index held onto Thursday’s gains of 1.1 percent, its biggest one-day rally in a month, to stand at 82.318 .DXY, extending its rebound from six-week low of 81.407 hit on Wednesday.


The broad rally in the dollar saw the euro ease to $ 1.3192, flat on the day but off Wednesday’s six-week high of $ 1.3345, while the yen fell towards 100 per dollar, well off this week’s high around 97.58.


The Australian dollar hit a three-year low as the currency was also smarting from dovish comments by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on Tuesday.


That prompted markets to not only price in a cut in interest rates next week, but a second easing before year-end, shrinking the yield premium offered by Australian over U.S. debt to its lowest since 2008. <AUD/>


On Thursday, U.S. data underlined the markets’ optimism about the recovery in the world’s largest economy. The Institute for Supply Management index of U.S. national factory activity for July rose to its highest level since June 2011, easing concerns a slowdown in emerging economies may take a toll on U.S. growth.


A separate report also showed first-time applications for jobless benefits hit a 5-1/2-year low last week, boding well for the payroll data.


A monthly rise in hiring in the 200,000 area, analysts say, should keep the Fed on track to start to pare its $ 85 billion purchases in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, as early as at its September 17-18 meeting.


“The market has digested the idea that the U.S. tapering will occur at some point,” said Andrew Doherty, head of equities at Morningstar, an independent research house based in Sydney.


“There’s been a reappraisal and revaluation that has seen moves back into high-yielding stocks providing decent returns for investors.”


Expectations of a gradual reduction in the Fed’s bond buying drove the 10-year U.S. Treasuries yield to 2.712 percent, within sight of a two-year peak of 2.755 percent hit last month.


U.S. crude oil futures prices were headed for their biggest weekly gain in a month, having risen three percent this week on upbeat global economic data and supply disruptions in Africa and Iraq. It last traded up 0.6 percent at $ 108.64 per barrel.


(Additional reporting by Thuy Ong in Sydney; Editing by Shri Navaratnam)





Reuters: Business News



U.S. jobs data may show strength, prompt stimulus end

Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Lawmakers likely to press Bernanke on Fed stimulus


(AP) — Ben Bernanke is expected to face tough questions Wednesday from U.S. lawmakers about when the Federal Reserve might start to scale back its low interest rate policies that have helped support economic growth.


The Fed chairman will also be pressed on the state of the economy and his future at the Fed after his second four-year term as chairman ends in January. And he may even criticize Congress for federal spending cuts and tax increases that have weighed on the economy this year.


But investors will focus on Bernanke’s comments about the Fed’s potential timetable for slowing its bond buying.


Bernanke’s two days of testimony begin Wednesday before the House Financial Services Committee. On Thursday he goes before the Senate Banking Committee.


Since the financial crisis erupted in 2008, the Fed has kept its benchmark short-term interest rate near zero. And since late last year, it’s been buying $ 85 billion a month in mortgage and long-term Treasury bonds to try to reduce long-term rates and induce people and businesses to borrow and spend.


Financial markets began to gyrate after then Fed’s June 18-19 meeting. That’s when Bernanke sketched a rough timetable for the Fed’s bond purchases. He said the Fed could start scaling back its bond buying later this year and end it around mid-2014 if the economy strengthens enough to be in line with the Fed’s more optimistic forecast.


Stocks plunged, even though Bernanke’s comments were generally in line with what economists had been expecting. The Dow Jones industrial average sank 560 points in two days. Investors feared Bernanke’s comments meant the Fed was ready to let rates rise sooner and faster than they’d expected.


Since then, the chairman and other Fed officials have sought to calm investors. They’ve stressed that the Fed won’t pull back on its stimulus unless the evidence was clear that the economy and the job market were improving as much as the Fed had forecast. If not, the Fed would keep its support intact. It might even increase its stimulus it felt the economy needed more support.


The stock market gradually recovered. And when Bernanke reinforced his go-slow message at a conference last week near Boston, the stock market celebrated. The Dow and the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index reached all-time highs.


The yield on the 10-year Treasury, a benchmark for mortgages and other long-term interest rates, also fell as investors bought bonds. It was at 2.54 percent on Tuesday after surging as high as 2.74 percent on July 5. That’s still well above the 1.63 percent reached on May 3.


At last week’s conference, Bernanke said unemployment was still too high and noted that inflation remains below the Fed’s 2 percent target — both reasons to keep low rate policies in place. He said the economy was also being held back by higher federal taxes and budget cuts.


“If you put all of that together,” Bernanke said, “you can only conclude that highly accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future is what is needed for the U.S. economy.”


The chairman signaled that even after the Fed starts to slow its monthly bond purchases, its overall policies will keep rates low. It plans, for example, to keep its investment holdings constant to avoid causing long-term rates to rise too fast. It also plans to keep short-term rates at record lows at least until unemployment reaches 6.5 percent. Unemployment is currently 7.6 percent.


And Bernanke has said 6.5 percent unemployment is a threshold, not a trigger. The Fed might decide to keep its benchmark short-term rate near zero even after unemployment falls that low.


Sung Won Sohn, an economics professor at the Martin Smith School of Business at California State University, expects Bernanke won’t deviate from last week’s message.


“I think Chairman Bernanke will try to calm the markets,” Sohn said. “I think he will say that the Fed’s exit strategy is totally dependent on future economic developments.”


Hiring has improved since the Fed’s bond buying began. Employers have created an average of 202,000 jobs a month this year, up from 180,000 in the previous six months.


Still, unemployment remains elevated, and economic growth has been modest the past three quarters.


The economy grew at a subpar 1.8 percent annual rate in the January-March quarter. Many economists think growth in the April-June quarter weakened to an annual rate of 1 percent or less. They foresee a moderate rebound in the second half of this year.


Bernanke may be delivering his last economic report to Congress. While he has not publicly announced his plans, it is widely thought that he does not want to remain for a third term as chairman.


Vice Chair Janet Yellen is considered the front-runner to replace Bernanke, but President Barack Obama has not tipped his hand yet about possible replacements.


Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, who served Obama in the first term as chairman of the National Economic Council, is also considered a potential candidate.


The expectation is that Obama will nominate a replacement in late summer or early fall so that the Senate will have time to hold confirmation hearings this year.


Associated Press




Business Headlines



Lawmakers likely to press Bernanke on Fed stimulus

Thursday, June 20, 2013

Wall Street drops in wake of Fed stimulus wind-down plan


1 of 4. Traders watch as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is seen on television during a news conference, on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange, June 19, 2013.


Credit: Reuters/Brendan McDermid




Reuters: Business News



Wall Street drops in wake of Fed stimulus wind-down plan

Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Bernanke says Fed stimulus benefits clear, downplays risks

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke strongly defended the U.S. central bank’s monetary stimulus before Congress on Tuesday, easing financial market worries over a possible early retreat from bond buys.


Reuters: Top News


Bernanke says Fed stimulus benefits clear, downplays risks