(swong@politico.com or @scottwongDC)
OHIO CLOCK TICK-TOCK: ANATOMY OF A SHUTDOWN – POLITICO’s John Bresnahan, Manu Raju, Jake Sherman and Carrie Budoff Brown spoke to dozens of sources on Capitol Hill and at the White House for this behind-the-scenes account: “House Speaker John Boehner just wanted to sneak out of the White House for a smoke. But President Barack Obama pulled him aside for a grilling. Obama wanted to know why they were in the second day of a government shutdown that the speaker had repeatedly and publicly pledged to avoid. ‘John, what happened?’ Obama asked, according to people briefed on the Oct. 2 conversation. ‘I got overrun, that’s what happened,’ Boehner said. …
– “It became clear almost from the moment the government closed Oct. 1 that it would stay that way for awhile. The White House received intelligence from an unlikely source: Boehner’s former chief of staff Barry Jackson. A lobbyist who spoke with Jackson passed on a detailed download to top administration officials. Chief among the insights was that Boehner would have to fight right up to the Oct. 17 debt limit deadline. Shortly after the White House meeting Oct. 2, a ragged Boehner filled in his closest allies about his talk with Obama, telling them that the president had confronted him in the room that former President George W. Bush called the ‘Lewinsky suite.’ …
– “Sitting around a conference table in the Roosevelt Room, Obama hammered the Republicans about reopening the government, demanding repeatedly to know ‘what is it going to take’ to get it done. A frustrated Ryan finally stood up and urged them to come together and craft something lasting. But what senior administration officials aides heard was a Freudian slip. ‘We’re going to have six weeks to negotiate the debt limit,’ Ryan said. Nobody challenged him, but White House aides mentally filed it away. …
– “Even though [Sen. Susan] Collins was picking up support, she never had the full buy-in of party leaders from either side. It was a veteran Republican senator, Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, who McConnell instead leaned on closely for some critical advice. Several sources said that Collins was upset when she learned Alexander was given this role, given that she had been working aggressively to cut a deal. McConnell aides later said Collins was critical to the end-result and nothing was meant as a slight against her. But Alexander was important because his politics are more conservative than Collins’ and he has a tight relationship with Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), Reid’s closest ally.” http://politi.co/H4RcE8
– POLITICO Editor in chief John Harris declares President Obama and the Democratic and Republican leaders of the House and Senate as members of the “Shutdown Winners Club.” “The past three weeks are widely, and correctly, understood as a reflection of the weakness of Washington leaders, who in both parties hoped to avoid the confrontation that just ended but proved powerless to prevent it. At the same time, however, the episode clearly highlighted that these leaders got to their positions for a reason — through skill at partisan maneuver and acutely sensitive instincts for self-protection.” http://politi.co/18s33Wp
– The end of the shutdown means the Senate’s beloved Ohio Clock is ticking again: http://politi.co/19b7yEv
– And the National Zoo’s Panda Cam is back: http://wapo.st/15LVLfb. Watch the pandas here: http://bit.ly/1dQ9PEI
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McCONNELL: CRUZ STRATEGY ‘WAS NOT A SMART PLAY’ – Manu Raju caught up with the Senate Republican leader a day after the deal: “At the end of the day, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell says he had no good option in the 16-day government shutdown fight. House Speaker John Boehner’s strategy collapsed. Ted Cruz’s push to use a shutdown to defund Obamacare was ‘not a smart play’ and a ‘tactical error,’ he said. And the country was staring at the threat of a prolonged shutdown and a potentially disastrous default on a nearly $ 17 trillion national debt. Using a football analogy, McConnell said he got the ball on his own two-yard-line with a ‘shaky’ offensive line and had to cut a last-ditch deal with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid to end the crisis, no matter how unappealing to many in his party. Despite acting as a chief deal-maker in recent years during government crises, it was unclear the role McConnell would play until the final days of the bitter fight.
– “‘Given the card I was dealt at that point, what I had hoped to have achieved was to punt the ball to a better place on the field without raising taxes or busting the [spending] caps,’ McConnell told POLITICO in a phone interview Thursday. ‘We got off track with a tactical error earlier starting in July and August that diverted our attention away from what was achievable,’ McConnell said bluntly of the defund Obamacare push. ‘And so we’ll be back at it in January and February, which is why the best you can say is, ‘It’s a punt.’’” http://politi.co/1atqJar
– McConnell told National Review’s Robert Costa that Republicans will not push another shutdown in another few months: “One of my favorite sayings is an old Kentucky saying, ‘There’s no education in the second kick of a mule.’” http://bit.ly/19UvQW3
BUT TED CRUZ refused to rule out another shutdown in an interview with ABC News’ Jonathan Karl: http://bit.ly/1i1t9Rz
– National Journal’s Beth Reinhard and Alex Roarty have dueling stories titled: “Ted Cruz is Finished” and “Ted Cruz is Just Getting Started”: http://bit.ly/18qaa1M and http://bit.ly/18qacGN
MINORITY LEADER NANCY PELOSI asks if the GOP “temper tantrum” was worth a $ 24 billion hit to the economy. The Hill: http://bit.ly/17wsoLv
CAN BUDGET CONFERENCE DELIVER? – Jonathan Weisman and Jackie Calmes write on A1 of the New York Times: “Congressional negotiators on Thursday plunged into difficult budget talks to avoid a repeat crisis within months, and quickly agreed to lower their sights from the sort of grand bargain that has eluded the two parties for three years. After approval late Wednesday of the agreement ending the standoff, the deal-making mantle shifted overnight from the leaders of the Senate to the Budget Committee leaders, Senator Patty Murray, Democrat of Washington, and Representative Paul D. Ryan, Republican of Wisconsin, two less senior lawmakers who nonetheless could make very effective salespeople since they command loyal followings in their parties. The political pressure lifted as well, for now. … The question of what a new House-Senate budget conference can deliver by its Dec. 13 deadline — in time for Congress to act by Jan. 15 on funding to keep the government open — remained the subject of deep skepticism, well earned by past failures at reaching so-called grand bargains for deficit reduction and spending investments in the past three years.” http://nyti.ms/1c1BHdP
GOOD FRIDAY MORNING, OCT. 18, 2013, and welcome to The Huddle, your-play-play preview of all the action on Capitol Hill. Send tips, suggestions, comments, complaints and corrections to swong@politico.com. If you don’t already, please follow me on Twitter @scottwongDC.
My new followers include @LaurenTrager and @jamesoliphant.
TODAY IN CONGRESS – The House is out and will return next week. The Senate is on recess until Monday, Oct. 28.
COOK REPORT SHIFTS 14 HOUSE RACES IN DEMS’ DIRECTION – Cook’s David Wasserman writes: “Mostly as a result of the damage House Republicans sustained during the 16-day government shutdown, we are making changes to our ratings in 15 House seats, all but one in Democrats’ direction. Democrats still have a very uphill climb to a majority, and it’s doubtful they can sustain this month’s momentum for another year. But Republicans’ actions have energized Democratic fundraising and recruiting efforts and handed Democrats a potentially effective message.”
– Ratings Changes: CA-31 Gary Miller (R) Toss Up to Lean D; CA-41 Mark Takano (D) Likely D to Solid D; CO-06 Mike Coffman (R) Lean R to Toss Up; FL-22 Lois Frankel (D) Likely D to Solid D; MI-03 Justin Amash (R) Solid R to Likely R; MI-07 Tim Walberg (R) Likely R to Lean R; MT-AL Steve Daines (R) Solid R to Likely R; NE-02 Lee Terry (R) Likely R to Lean R; NJ-02 Frank LoBiondo (R) Solid R to Likely R; NJ-03 Jon Runyan (R) Solid R to Likely R; NM-02 Steve Pearce (R) Solid R to Likely R; NY-23 Tom Reed (R) Likely R to Lean R; OH-06 Bill Johnson (R) Likely R to Lean R; PA-08 Mike Fitzpatrick (R) Likely R to Lean R; WV-03 Nick Rahall (D) Lean D to Toss Up. Subscription required: http://bit.ly/19V18w4
DCCC CITES SHUTDOWN IN RECORD SEPTEMBER HAUL – Alex Isenstadt reports for the hometown paper: “The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee raised an eye-popping $ 8.4 million in September, the month preceding the government shutdown, according to figures provided to POLITICO and to be made public Friday. The figure stands as the DCCC’s best September ever in a year before an election, and is nearly double the committee’s August haul. Of the total, $ 3 million came from online donations — making it the top off-year online month for any party committee in history. Some $ 2 million alone came in the six days after Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) launched his 21-hour anti-Obamacare marathon speech.” http://politi.co/H1kOC9
HUDDLE FIRST LOOK: NRSC HITS LANDRIEU FOR OBAMACARE SPEECH – Republicans will blast a news release later this morning knocking Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) for a floor speech this week in which she suggested her 2014 race will be a referendum on Obamacare – a law she voted for. “We did not wake up one morning and declare this the law. The people of the United States declared this through us as their Representatives. If they do not like it, they can unelect us. Believe me, they will have a great chance because I am up for reelection right now. They will be able to do that. But that is the way you do it,” she said. The NRSC cites polls that show more than 60 percent of Louisianans oppose Obamacare. Here’s the release: http://bit.ly/1bDcTo5.
CONSERVATIVE GROUPS RALLY AROUND COCHRAN TEA-PARTY CHALLENGER – The Washington Post’s Sean Sullivan: “A trio of conservative groups announced Thursday they will back Mississippi state Sen. Chris McDaniel (R), who is running for the seat held by Sen. Thad Cochran (R). The Club For Growth, Senate Conservatives Fund and the Madison Project each announced endorsements. ‘Chris McDaniel is a constitutional conservative who will fight to stop Obamacare, balance the budget, and get America working again,’ said Senate Conservatives Fund executive director Matt Hoskins. Added Club For Growth President Chris Chocola: ‘Senator Chris McDaniel represents the next generation of conservative leadership that Mississippi Republicans are waiting for.’ Cochran has not yet definitively said whether he will run for reelection.”
THE ROGERS REPORT: RETURN OF THE CHAIRMEN? – David Rogers explains how we got into this big mess in the first place: “The rise of the modern House speaker began 40 years ago as party caucuses became more unified and members demanded stronger central leadership — often at the expense of committee chairmen. The late Tip O’Neill, the first of the modern speakers, approached this task with caution. Newt Gingrich went a huge step further, even channeling Oliver Cromwell. Nancy Pelosi created her own global warming panel. And upon becoming speaker in 2011, John Boehner wasted no time before kicking the House Appropriations Committee out of its Capitol offices.
– “But this concentration of power in the speakership comes at a price. It diminishes not just the chairmen but the speaker’s identity as a constitutional officer for the whole House. It tilts the scales more in favor of party interests and away from the institution. Instead of presiding over legislation, speakers take ownership. More and more, measures are rewritten on the second floor of the Capitol, not committee offices. … All this history comes to bear, looking back at the bedlam of the past few weeks. And what Washington saw was the concentrated power of the modern speakership turned onto itself — reduced to dysfunction by deep divisions inside the GOP.” http://politi.co/1gpD1ZW
PAUL’S SOFTER SIDE EMERGES IN SHUTDOWN FIGHT – Katie Glueck reports for POLITICO: “Rand Paul is no wacko bird. Just ask Lindsey Graham. ‘Rand Paul’s been incredibly responsible,’ Graham (R-S.C.), who has clashed with Paul in the past, said just before the Senate voted to end the government shutdown. ‘I’ve seen a side of Rand I haven’t seen before. That’s one of the pluses of this whole deal. He’s been great.’ According to many moderate GOP observers, the Kentucky Republican and likely 2016 contender has deftly maneuvered the past several weeks of shutdown politics, toeing the conservative line without alienating the rest of the party — especially compared to his frequent sidekick, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas). A key challenge for Paul if he runs would be to make himself acceptable to — if not win over — traditional Republicans. His low-key approach to the shutdown and debt limit drama could help that cause.” http://politi.co/1gQGvm3
OBAMA TO TAP EX-PENTAGON LAWYER AS HOMELAND SECURITY CHIEF – The AP’s Alicia Caldwell writes that the pick marks a shift from immigration to national security: “President Barack Obama’s selection of a former top Pentagon lawyer to head the Homeland Security Department suggests the agency will be stepping back from its preoccupation with immigration to focus more on protecting the nation from attack. Jeh C. Johnson, if confirmed by the Senate, would replace Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, who left the DHS last month to become president of the University of California system. Obama was expected to announce Johnson’s nomination [at 2 p.m.] Friday. Unlike Napolitano, Johnson has spent most of his career dealing with weighty national security issues as a top military lawyer. Issues he handled included ending the military’s don’t-ask-don’t-tell policy for gay service members and changing military commissions to try terrorism suspects rather than using civilian courts. He also oversaw the escalation of the use of unmanned drone strikes during the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as general counsel at the Defense Department.” http://bo.st/17Q7aHE
THURSDAY’S TRIVIA WINNER – Neil Townsend was first to correctly answer that the brother of President William Howard Taft, former Rep. Charles Phelps Taft, was an owner of the Chicago Cubs the last time they won the World Series in 1908.
TODAY’S TRIVIA – Claude Marx has one more question for this week: The son of President Theodore Roosevelt’s secretary went on to become a newspaper publisher and power broker. Name the father and son, as well as the newspaper? The first person to correctly answer gets a mention in the next day’s Huddle. Email me at swong@politico.com.
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