Japanese architect honored for creating temporary housing for disaster victims

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Japanese architect honored for creating temporary housing for disaster victims

WARPED, DISTORTED, MANIPULATED, FLIPPED HOUSING MARKET

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WARPED, DISTORTED, MANIPULATED, FLIPPED HOUSING MARKET

Joke Headline of the Day: "Pending Home Sales Rise"; Five Housing Headwinds

Joke Headline of the Day: "Pending Home Sales Rise"; Five Housing Headwinds
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_JXM98EicGnzOz1Il6Mq6CUZhB1cPfqQTajJKoiof2L7c2LkqBPYkFW9w6x7YqkV3FmhpTMRvoTrLY3iaXxVd6c6bH9i8jbr0nbi_p6oFAjwa7jZKsjXUHr90Tq0jI0BFNasWBksbOlo/s400/Pending+Home+Sales.png

I was perusing online stories about today’s release of pending homes sales data from the National Association of Realtors. Here are a few sample headlines.

NAR: Pending Home Sales Edge Up in November
CNBC: US pending home sales rise 0.2 percent
Calculated Risk: Pending Home Sales Index increased 0.2% in November
Forbes: Pending Home Sales Tick Up In November, First Time In Five Months
Reuters: U.S. pending home sales end slide, hint at stabilization
Fox Business News: Pending Home Sales Rise Slightly, Miss Street View

One Headline Title Stood Out

Zero Hedge: Pending Home Sales Plunge At Fastest Pace Since April 2011

It took about one second to understand the discrepancy.

All but the ZeroHedge headline (not necessarily the articles) ignored the NAR statement (see first link) “The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, inched up 0.2 percent to 101.7 in November from a downwardly revised 101.5 in October, but is 1.6 percent below November 2012 when it was 103.3.“

ZeroHedge has a chart that shows just that.

Pending Home Sales Year-Over-Year

It’s kind of easy for sales to be up when the previous month was revised lower. But how much lower? The NAR did not even say. Let’s take a look at monthly NAR reports to find out.

November 25 NAR: October Pending Home Sales Down Again, but Expected to Level Out: The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, slipped 0.6 percent to 102.1 in October from an upwardly revised 102.7 in September, and is 1.6 percent below October 2012 when it was 103.8. The index is at the lowest level since December 2012 when it was 101.3; the data reflect contracts but not closings.

October 28 NAR: Pending Home Sales Continue Slide in September: The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, fell 5.6 percent to 101.6 in September from a downwardly revised 107.6 in August, and is 1.2 percent below September 2012 when it was 102.8. The index is at the lowest level since December 2012 when it was 101.3; the data reflect contracts but not closings.

September 26 NAR: Pending Home Sales Decline in August: The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, eased 1.6 percent to 107.7 in August from a downwardly revised 109.4 in July, but remains 5.8 percent above August 2012 when it was 101.8; the data reflect contracts but not closings. Pending sales have been above year-ago levels for the past 28 months.

August 28 NAR: July Pending Home Sales Slip: The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, declined 1.3 percent to 109.5 in July from 110.9 in June, but is 6.7 percent above July 2012 when it was 102.6; the data reflect contracts but not closings.  Pending sales have stayed above year-ago levels for the past 27 months.

Note the October data (released November 25) showed the pending home sales index slipped a reported 0.6 percent to 102.1.
  
“Pending Home Sales Rise”

• Last Month: 102.1


• This Month: 101.7


• Result: Rise of 0.2

With all this revisionist history, these month-over-month comparisons seem rather meaningless. The chart posted by ZeroHedge shows the real story.

Lawrence Nun, the NAR cheerleader had this to say “We may have reached a cyclical low because the positive fundamentals of job creation and household formation are likely to foster a fairly stable level of contract activity in 2014“.

Five Housing Headwinds

1. Prices Up (Housing Less Affordable)


2. Interest Rates Up (Housing Less Affordable)


3. Insufficient Wage Growth (Housing Less Affordable)


4. Household Formation Poor (Lack of Buyers)


5. Poor Job Growth  (Lack of Buyers)

I suggest there is absolutely nothing that suggests a cyclical low.  The recovery has been fueled by excessively low rates, that are now rising sharply.

For further discussion of headwinds, especially the rise in interest rates, please see Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate Hits 4.47% (Not Counting Fees); Affordability Check

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis

Read more about Joke Headline of the Day: "Pending Home Sales Rise"; Five Housing Headwinds and other interesting subjects concerning Economy at TheDailyNewsReport.com

VIDEO: Is it the End For the 30-Year Mortgage?

The real housing debate boils down to this: Should all Americans continue to have relatively easy access to the pre-payable, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage? Nick Timiraos reports. Photo: AP.

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VIDEO: Is it the End For the 30-Year Mortgage?

Bloomberg seeks mandatory fingerprinting for NYC public housing residents

Published time: August 17, 2013 09:38

The 620,000 residents living in public housing projects should be fingerprinted as a crime-prevention measure, said New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, but many city residents protest that the proposal is an invasion of privacy.

Bloomberg, 71, who has acquired a reputation for promoting controversial ideas, including imposing a ban on the sale of large soft drinks, says his latest proposal will make public housing safer.

“The people that live (in public housing), most of them, want more police protection,” the three-time mayor said on his weekly WOR radio broadcast Friday. “They want more people. If you have strangers walking in the halls of your apartment building, don’t you want somebody to stop and say: ‘Who are you, why are you here?’”

He added: “What we really should have is fingerprinting to get in, since there’s an allegation that some of the apartments aren’t occupied by the people who originally have the lease.”

Just 5 percent of New York’s population lives in public housing, but 20 percent of the city’s reported crime is committed by residents of government-subsidized housing projects, Bloomberg said.

“We’ve just got to find some way to keep bringing crime down there.”

His spokesman said Bloomberg wants to introduce biometric security technology that would include the introduction of a citywide electronic keycard system for housing residents, AP reported.

Critics say Bloomberg’s latest proposal is a political step too far, especially as it comes on the heels of the highly divisive stop-and-frisk legislation, which opponents say amounts to racial profiling on the part of the police.

“We live here all these years, I mean, what seems to be the problem? This is not jail,” Deborah Gatling, a resident of Chelsea Houses, told CBS.

US District Judge Shira A. Scheindlin on Monday ruled that the NYPD’s stop-and-frisk searches are a violation of constitutional rights, according to documents filed in a Manhattan court.

The federal court found that stop-and-frisk represented a violation of the Fourth Amendment, which forbids unreasonable searches. The court presented statistics that police conducted at least 200,000 such searches without reasonable suspicion from 2004 through 2012.

Bloomberg, whose estimated fortune is $ 27 billion, making him the US’s 7th-wealthiest person, defended the stop-and-frisk policy, arguing it had contributed to a falling murder rate in the city. Murders have been halved since he took office nearly 12 years ago, he noted.

New York City officials say they will file an appeal against Scheindlin’s decision.

In a recent poll conducted by The New York Times, people were asked to rate Michael Bloomberg’s 12 years as the city’s 108th mayor: 52 percent described his performance as fair or poor, compared with 46 percent who described it as excellent or good.

Meanwhile, the controversial stop-and-frisk tactic, which city officials say has also reduced gun violence, has split the electorate: 50 percent approve and 47 percent disapprove of it, the poll found. Public approval for the policing tactic that critics slam as racial profiling is lowest among black residents (28 percent), compared with whites (55 percent) and Hispanics (59 percent).

Following the global financial crash of 2008, Bloomberg requested that restrictions on term limits for New York mayors be relaxed to enable him to run again to bring the city out of the crisis. In October 2008, the City Council voted 29–22 in favor of extending the limit to three consecutive four-year terms, thus allowing Bloomberg to run again.

The next New York City mayoral election is scheduled to occur on November 5, 2013.

RT – USA

Bloomberg seeks mandatory fingerprinting for NYC public housing residents

Obama: Time to turn the page on housing woes

President Barack Obama smile during a news conference in the East Room at the White House in Washington, Friday, Aug. 9, 2013. The president said he’ll work with Congress to change the oversight of some of the National Security Agency’s controversial surveillance programs and name a new panel of outside experts to review technologies.(AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)

President Barack Obama smile during a news conference in the East Room at the White House in Washington, Friday, Aug. 9, 2013. The president said he’ll work with Congress to change the oversight of some of the National Security Agency’s controversial surveillance programs and name a new panel of outside experts to review technologies.(AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)

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WASHINGTON (AP) — President Barack Obama says the housing market is healing, but it’s time to turn the page on the “bubble-and-bust mentality” that led to the market’s collapse.

In his weekly radio and Internet address, Obama calls on Congress to let all Americans refinance at current low rates. He wants more help for first-time homebuyers and expanded affordable rental housing. He’s proposing to phase out mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac so private capital can play a bigger role in mortgages.

At the same time, Obama says the U.S. must preserve access to popular 30-year mortgages.

In the Republican address, Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina says Obama’s energy policies have failed. He says Republicans want government to get out of the way, including by approving the Keystone XL pipeline.

___

Online:

Obama address: www.whitehouse.gov

GOP address: www.youtube.com/gopweeklyaddress

Associated Press

Copyright 2013 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Politics Headlines

Obama: Time to turn the page on housing woes

Obama says wants to pass housing reform measures this year

U.S. President Barack Obama waves as he returns from a birthday weekend visit at Camp David to the White House in Washington, August 4, 2013.

Credit: Reuters/Jonathan Ernst

Reuters: Politics

Obama says wants to pass housing reform measures this year

Housing, regional factory data show economy"s stamina

A man holds a pamphlet handed out by a recruiter while attending a job fair in New York, June 11, 2013.

Credit: Reuters/Lucas Jackson

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON | Thu Jun 20, 2013 8:58am EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – More Americans than expected filed new claims for unemployment benefits last week, but still not enough to signal a material shift from the recent pace of moderate job growth.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 18,000 to a seasonally adjusted 354,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists had expected first-time applications to rise to 340,000 last week.

The four-week moving average for new claims, which irons out week-to-week volatility, rose 2,500 to 348,250 – holding below the 350,000 mark that economists usually associate with steady job gains.

Despite the increase last week, claims remained in the middle of their range for this year.

“The trend we’ve been seeing is still well intact. Where jobless claims are right now should tell you that the economy is doing okay, that it’s on a decent path,” said Brett Ryan, an economist at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York.

The dollar trimmed gains versus the euro and yen after the data, while yields on U.S. Treasuries fell slightly.

Last week’s data covered the period in which the government surveyed companies for June’s nonfarm payrolls count. Claims increased 10,000 between the May and June survey periods, suggesting little change in the pace of job creation.

Employers added 175,000 new jobs to their payrolls last month, with the unemployment rate ticking up a tenth of a percentage point to 7.6 percent. Job gains have averaged 172,000 per month over the last 12 months.

The Federal Reserve, which has been closely monitoring the labor market, said on Wednesday downside risks to the outlook for the jobs market had diminished since the fall and it painted a fairly upbeat picture of the economy.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the U.S. central bank expected to slow the pace of its bond purchases later this year and bring them to a halt around the middle of 2014. The Fed is buying $ 85 billion in bonds per month in an effort to keep interest rates low and drive down still-high unemployment.

The claims report showed the number of people still receiving benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid fell 40,000 to 2.95 million in the week ended June 8.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Additional reporting by Paige Gance; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Paul Simao)

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Reuters: Economic News

Housing, regional factory data show economy"s stamina

Sweden Housing Crash Coming Up; Average Swede to Repay Mortgage in 140 Years; Swedish Central Bank Ponders New Rules

Average Swede to Repay Mortgage in 140 Years

Swedish repay their mortgages so slowly that it will take 140 years on average, according to the IMF.

The International Monetary Fund lamented Friday that Swedish households pay their mortgages so slowly that they are planning to do an average of 140 years.

“Financial stability is [...] reinforced by a steady reduction in repayment schedules – that exceed an average of 140 years,” the IMF said in a statement after a mission in Sweden.

This statistic was revealed in March by a government agency, the inspection of the financial sector. It covers loans considered relatively safe, those where the real estate buyer had an initial contribution equal to or greater than 25% of the value of the property and pay the higher monthly interest alone.

According to the Washington-based institution, the Swedish real estate market is a major risk to the economy, along with the eurozone crisis.

“With household debt rising beyond 1.7 times disposable income, a sudden and significant drop in property prices could have an effect on consumption and banks, raising unemployment and further reduce the inflation, and increased the number of non-performing loans and financing costs for banks, “said the IMF.

Why bother paying anything at all? Yet think of the consequences of underwater mortgages on the banking system when an estate does not have enough money to repay loans. A housing bust will have enormous consequences in such a setup.

Swedish Central Bank Ponders New Rules

Sweden is in the midst of a property bubble and a debt bubble, so much so that the risk mentioned above was noticed by the Swedish central bank.

And central banks are always at the tail end of noticing risks of the policies they sponsor.

Please consider Swedes’ high debts spark housing bubble fears.

Martin Andersson, the head of Sweden’s Financial Supervisory Authority (Finansinspektionen), expressed his concern about Swedes’ mounting debts. “Swedish households today are among the most indebted in Europe and we cannot have household lending that spirals out of control,” Andersson said.

One tool already in place to dampen the growth of Swedish household debt is a mortgage lending ceiling introduced in 2010 which caps the amount home buyers can borrow at 85 percent of the value of the property.

Riksbank head Stefan Ingves has also suggested new rules that would require Swedes to pay down the principal on their mortgages, although Andersson refused to say whether his agency would consider such a rule.

Last year, Swedes’ household debt hit a record 173 percent of disposable income, well above the 135 percent level during the height of Sweden’s banking crisis in the early 1990s.

Sweden Housing Crash Coming Up

By the time central banks notice bubbles and begin to discuss ways to alleviate them, it is far, far too late to do anything about them. A housing crash with huge consequences is 100% certain.

The longer it takes before the crash begins, the worse the crash.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Mike “Mish” Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis

Sweden Housing Crash Coming Up; Average Swede to Repay Mortgage in 140 Years; Swedish Central Bank Ponders New Rules